Tag Archives: inflation

In our view, the four primary drivers of market valuations are earnings, dividends, interest rates and inflation, of which two stand out above the others as being the most important. We look at each factor and then conclude with what it means for stocks.

The Fed and the bond market are responding appropriately to declining risk aversion and a somewhat improved economic outlook. There is no reason to fear the end of QE or the beginning of higher short-term interest rates. Let me explain further.

A temporary period of deflation will result from the end of the Fed's massive asset purchases followed by a period of inflation that will make the '70s seem like an era of hard money. Here's why.

There have been many econoblog posts of the form, "ha, ha, the people predicting inflation have been wrong so far, when will they give up?". Let me try to explain why we know high inflation is coming eventually.

There is an idea floating about to stimulate the economy via providing cash directly to consumers. It may just be a trial balloon at this point, but I expect the idea to gain traction. Here's why.

Frankly, we cannot conceive of a more cataclysmic set of circumstances for both the global economy in general, and the gold Cartel specifically, than currently exist. Act now, before “traders” return from summer vacations next week or you may be locked out of the most important “protection trade” of all time!

Though the stock, bond and currency markets, at the moment, are preoccupied with the question of when the first interest-rate increase will happen, the real story lies in where interest rates are ultimately headed because that answer defines where stock, bond and currency prices are ultimately headed and the reality, dear reader, is that the Fed simply cannot — and will not — allow interest rates to crawl very high. Why is that you ask? Read on!

Amazingly, we are on the verge of a global deflationary downturn and what could be a historic bear market, yet Wall Street prognosticators remain focused on the inflationary risks of excessive monetary stimulus. Their focus could not be more wrong. Let me explain further.

Despite the European Central Bank's periodic assurances to the contrary, Europe is well on its way to a lost economic decade and if European policymakers cannot shake themselves out of their present state of complacency we should brace ourselves for very rough going in the global financial markets when the U.S. Federal Reserve starts the process of normalizing interest rates.

So much analysis we see and hear lately is concerned with whether the stock market is in a bubble or not. The truth of the matter, however, is that bear markets do not begin due to bubble-level valuations being reached and then bursting, but in anticipation of half a dozen mitigating factors as outlined in this article.