Gold

Every bottom undergoes a process of retesting but none is yet apparent in gold & silver. In the early part of 2014 we said that the second half could likely be more of the same as it was in 2013, and with just a few weeks away from the end of the year, prospects for 2015 can equally be brought into question regarding the price appreciation of gold and silver.

Since 1999 the gold price has moved in concert with the growth in the US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet including the recent correction in both during the past three years. Accordingly, the following objective analysis forecasts the gold price out to 2016 based solely on historical Central Bank data.

There's a relationship between gold and oil that's worth understanding because each, being valued in U.S. dollars, putatively serves as a measure of inflation and, since both commodities have a common denominator, it's easy to price one against the other. Ergo, the gold/oil ratio i.e. the price of gold expressed in barrels of crude, and the current gold/oil ratio begs the question: "Is gold getting pricey or is oil too cheap?

A look at the charts shows that there is no foreseeable change for gold and silver that has not already been covered in previous articles, and certainly elsewhere, and puts an end to all the pronouncements from so-called experts that PMs would be much higher.

There were no shortage of gold price pundits/prognosticators back in 2011 & 2012 claiming that gold would be going to "x" price by "y" date. Below is an updated list of those 42 pundits who were bold enough to provide a specific date as to when their forecast would be realized with their criteria & rationale supported by links to articles in which their determinations were first put forth.

I see gold going lower and lower eventually breaking below the psychological figure of $1,000 and perhaps even testing the $850 level to break the back of gold bugs and get the CNBC cheerleaders to claim the gold bull dead.

Back in May WaveTrack International’s Peter Goodburn predicted a sharp downturn in precious metals prices...by the end of Q3 this year, which would then be followed by a massive reversal in prices which would take all the major precious metals up to new highs probably by early 2016. This article provides an update to his May projections.

As encouraging as the recent rallies in gold and silver may seem, they are still just rallies within a clearly defined down trend. For trading purposes, there is no reason to be long. For buying and holding physical gold and silver, there are too many reasons not to be long. Plan accordingly.

This infographic sums up everything you need to know about the upcoming Swiss gold referendum.

My new analyses of gold & silver suggests they will both show renewed weakness before jumping dramatically in price by the end of 2016/early 2017 - to $3,500 and $90 respectively . Below are the specific details (with charts).