Economic Overviews

China’s miracle is driven by one thing and one thing only: its trade surplus with the U.S., which went from zero in 1990 up to now more than $300 billion a year [but] since the darkest hours of the 2008 global economic meltdown, China has made little progress in shifting its reliance away from exports, and, as a result, the Chinese economy is dangerously exposed to a renewed downturn in global trade. Words: 500

It's easy to find analysts and investors who are certain that a deal [to avoid the fiscal cliff] will be reached, or at least that the can will be kicked down the road to buy more time. It's also easy to find more pessimistic views that are based on the lack of cooperation in the past, and a deeply polarized country and political system. However, I think many are missing the point, which is that austerity is coming to America - taxes are going up and government spending will be reduced - [and. as such,] the United States is likely to face a recession and market correction in 2013, regardless of whether or not a compromise is reached over the Fiscal Cliff. Words: 970

The (relative) impact on economies around the world would be major but particularly on Canada, Mexico and to a lesser extent on some other economies in a precarious state –- the UK, Germany, China, and Japan. [The details are illustrated, country by country, in a map below. Take a look.]

None of the three different statistical measures of financial stress released this week suggest any conditions in the financial markets that would indicate that the U.S. economy is in a recession already, and none of them are exhibiting any upward trends that would point to a pending recession. In fact, all three stress measures have been trending downward through 2012, indicating that there is less financial stress now than at the beginning of the year. [Take a look at what each has to say and judge for yourself.] Words: 571

The Legatum Prosperity Index survey, as shown in the following table, ranks countries on eight different attributes, and then consolidates those attributes into an 'overall ranking'. The report says that the U.S. has fallen out of the top 10 (to #12) in the 'most prosperous country ranking' increasing doubts about the health of its economy and ability of its politicians. Read the balance of the article to see where your country is ranked overall and in each of the 8 different categories. Words: 520

The US Recession Probabilities Index is currently at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Interestingly, however, I don’t see recession signals in the internal indicators that I follow and which have been right for a long time now so this clearly puts that opinion in the “this time is different” category - or does it? Words: 255

The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions [although] the U.S. seems to be plodding along despite woes outside her borders . Whilst global recession is certainly an alarm bell for the U.S economy, it is just that – a shot across the bows and not a direct hit. [As such,] there is no reason to hit any panic buttons...[yet other than] to monitor the U.S. recession models ever more closely for any signs of weakness. [Let me explain why this is the case.] Words: 601

It is relatively easy to predict further commodity price inflation as a result of the massive money printing going on worldwide and that hard assets, not paper assets, will help protect purchasing power but it is much more difficult to project where else this money printing leads and to what extent a crash is inevitable. What is the endgame? Will it be another financial crash such as in 2008 or will it be a more destructive financial and economic crash that causes a severe but temporary disruption in the delivery of goods and services? Words: 1470

The primary driver of stock prices over the last three years has been the anticipation of more monetary stimulus from Central Banks...[and if one] were to remove the market moves that occurred around Fed FOMC meetings (the times when the Fed announced new programs or hinted at doing so), the S&P 500 would be at 600 today. [As such,] by announcing a program that will be on going in nature, the Fed has removed the anticipation of future Central Bank intervention from investors' psychologies. This could become highly problematic, especially if these latest announcements turn out to be duds. [Are you doing what needs to be done to protect yourself?] Words: 682

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index is at a crucial crossroads with serious implications as to whether or not slower global growth is at hand. Take a look at where it currently is and continue to watch closely in the days ahead.