With the October PMIs [having all been reported] I had another look at what to expect on the economic front with regard to economic growth in the major economic regions [Eurozone, U.S., Japan, China and the U.K. - and it is a mixed bag, to say the least. Let's take a look at a few charts.] Words: 475
Read More »Economist Paul Krugman: A Constant Reminder That U.S. has Become a 'A Truth is a Lie, and a Lie is a Truth' Society
A highly talented individual in the USA finds it ever more difficult to fight his way through to self-realization and a socially creative position. Universities, politics, and businesses ever more frequently demonstrate a united front of relatively untalented persons and even incompetent persons. The word 'overeducated' is heard more and more often. Such 'overqualified' individuals finally hide out in some foundation laboratory where they are allowed to earn the Nobel prize as long as they don’t do anything really useful. Words:
Read More »The U.S. is Headed Toward a Complete and Utter Collapse of its Financial System (+3K Views)
The U.S. is headed inexorably toward a systemic failure, a complete and utter collapse of the financial system. TARP and all the other machinations have not improved the underlying insolvency of the banking system. They have, however, deferred a collapse and ensured that it will ultimately be worse. [Let me explain.] Words: 1385
Read More »There Are 2 Ways Out of Global Economic Mess – Hope for One of Them & Prepare for the Other
It all comes down to this: We have to match growth to debt. If we can't create miracles from growth, we have to consider inflation to reduce the value of our debt. [Those are the] only two ways out of our current global economic mess - innovation and inflation. As the saying goes, we should hope for the best (more innovation) and prepare for the worst (higher inflation). [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 1195
Read More »Wise Words of Advice for Today’s Economists from a Veteran Observer (+2K Views)
[Below is] a list of my favorite 25 rules for analyzing the economy. There are probably many more than this and many that have yet to be discovered, but this list has served me well over the past quarter century and hopefully will be of use to others. Words: 1849
Read More »WSJ Economist Survey Estimates Regarding Future GDP and Probability of Recession Inconsistent! Here's Why
50 economists forecast their estimates for real GDP over the next 6 quarters in a recent Wall Street Journal survey [and their projections, on average, show a modest increase through to the end of 2012 as the table below shows. In addition, they were asked] to forecast... the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months] and the results were quite surprising - quite. Let me show you.] Words: 600
Read More »New Report Confirms that "Occupy Wall Street" Has a Point Regarding Income Inequality in America
Of all the many banners being waved around the world by disgruntled protesters from Chile to Australia the one that reads, "We Are the 99%" is the catchiest. It is purposefully vague, but it is also underpinned by some solid economics. A report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)... confirms the contentions of the 99% that a system that works well for the very richest has delivered returns on labour that are disappointing for everyone else and that the people at the top have made out like bandits over the past few decades, and that now everyone else must pick up the bill. [Take a look at the graph which shows just how unequal income distribution is in the USA.] Words: 776
Read More »Latest Data Suggests American Economy Is Fighting Off Another Recession
This week’s rail data was somewhat mixed with total carloads showing a decline while intermodal jumped 4.2% YoY. [This suggests]...an economy that is growing modestly... It’s not a great environment, but it’s also misguided to get bogged down in the debate over a new recession. Words: 235
Read More »These 8 Economic Reforms Would Propel the Dow to 20,000!
Our economy – and economic disparity – can never be fixed until we deal with the debt - and we will never deal with the debt without dramatic reforms to stop underlying dysfunction in government & endemic wasteful spending. Furthermore, we cannot grow our way out of the debt. No credible forecast suggests that future rates of growth for the U.S. economy will be sufficient to close these deficits without significant changes to our fiscal policies. Here are 8 reforms that need to be addressed if we are to have any hope of ever turning things around. I believe they would propel the Dow Jones to 20,000 and beyond. Words: 689
Read More »To What Extent Would European Recession Adversely Affect Your State's Economy? Take a Look
The greatest risk to the United States economy right now is a recession triggered by the European financial crisis. [Below is a chart that clearly depicts each of the 50 states exports to Europe as a % of GDP. You will be surprised at what it reveals. Take a look.] Words: 235
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