Economic Overviews

In this article we review the characteristics and different stages of a bubble, present some recent asset price bubbles, and identify current conditions which match up with traditional bubble criteria.

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between Russia and the U.S. - the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this - I feel ready...to define five stages of collapse to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it. Words: 2500

If you want to know how the global economy is doing let this simple indicator do the talking - and here is what it is saying these days.

If we look at the economic collapses of the past, from the fall of the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany to Argentina and Zimbabwe, the pattern is extremely similar. Let's have a look at that pattern and ask ourselves if the present situation might not play out much the same.

There are many different types of economies - communism, socialism, capitalism and democratic socialism. We tend to use the terms concretely, which necessarily introduces inaccuracies and, as such, they serve as excuses not to think and to hold economic beliefs that discourage explorations of the mismatch between theory and practice. Do you know exactly how they differ? Read on.

The economy is a better indicator than stocks and bonds (house prices, too) of our financial health.

The output gap is a critical concept in economics that measures the real economy today relative to trend potential....and the biggest question in the economy today is how long will it take to close the gap.

What I outline below is not a forecast but a potential scenario which I sincerely hope won’t come to pass but the risk of going down the road to political and financial system collapse, social unrest and even civil war, and eventual hyperinflation, is certainly there.

A look (not a prediction) at a series of not improbable events that could develop [and which] would change our economic world overnight.

Warning: Reader discretion is advised! You are about to read a fictional account of what we could be faced with in the coming years - perhaps as early as 2024 - based on events that are already taking place in America today. It is most alarming but, unfortunately, after everything I’ve seen during my time inside Wall Street, inside the CIA and inside the halls of the Pentagon, that’s the path America’s heading down.