Economic Overviews

The qualitative relationship between the growth in the Total Money Supply, credit crises, and recessions has been remarkably clear since 1978 and, as such, the current suppression of the Total Money Supply growth rate, if it is sustained for the rest of the year, portends another credit crisis and housing bust, followed by an economic recession for the U.S. economy.

...Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years...[and such] an explosion of volatility is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic and have been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle.

The World Inequality Report 2018 is a rich resource, with lots of information on inequality of incomes by country and by region, inequality of wealth, shifts in public wealth, and other topics. Here are a few of the figures that jumped out at me.

The market is now officially in the largest bubble relative to the economy in history according to the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio, which, incidentally, is Warren Buffett's favorite means of valuing stock.

The U.S. and global economies will contract to a level we have never experienced before. We are most certainly in unchartered territory. The GRAND FACADE will come crashing down to the shock and surprise of the masses. Here is my analysis and the reasons we are heading towards a cliff. Words: 1171

Today, we’re seeing the greatest political polarization since the Civil War, a debt and financial asset bubble that makes the Roaring 20s look like child’s play, and income inequality greater than that experienced in 1929 and the discovery of a rare convergence of three-long term cycles points to a revolution - a true revolution.

There has been nothing that has been normal about this economic recovery, and I don’t think there’s going to be anything that’s normal on how this all ends. For now, enjoy the melt-up, because this too will come to an end.

Today everything must be dumbed down to the lowest common denominator of readers or viewers... Any news must be superficial and short. Most content must have an entertainment or gossip value. All serious matters are either left out or covered very briefly. We are now in the age of instant gratification. Viewers’ interest can only be kept by short superficial language, lots of big images and constant change of focus. No one is really interested in the truth but, nevertheless, here it is!

The media is full of stories claiming that lower tax rates will cause a huge and damaging increase in the federal deficit and will fail to stimulate the economy. Here are 10 charts which show that those claims are not backed by historical experience.

Is the market overly complacent? Overly optimistic? Absurdly cheap or expensive? A great buy on dips? "No" is the best answer to all these questions, in my view. Now is not a time to take on oversized risks, but neither is it a time to cash in all your chips. Let me explain with the help of the 12 charts below.