Tag Archives: S&P 500

In the face of the now-obvious negative outlook - the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging, excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the "fiscal cliff", the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and the prospect that corporate earnings estimates were far too high - the question we get most often is why the market has declined so little, and why it seems so resistant to bad news. In our view the reluctance of the market to give up much ground is typical of....Words: 356

A new position paper by Seth J. Masters, chief investment officer of Bernstein Global Wealth Management, entitled “The Case for the 20,000 Dow” is startling. Masters maintains that the odds Dow will rise by more than 7,000 points - an increase of more than 50% - by the end of this decade are excellent. [Below is his argument for such a lofty expectation.] Words: 715

A new position paper by Seth J. Masters, chief investment officer of Bernstein Global Wealth Management, entitled “The Case for the 20,000 Dow” is startling. Masters maintains that the odds Dow will rise by more than 7,000 points - an increase of more than 50% - by the end of this decade are excellent. [Below is his argument for such a lofty expectation.] Words: 715

We love charts....so we reached out to some of the world's most influential analysts, economists, hedge-funders and traders and asked them a simple question: "What charts are you always keeping your eye on?" [Here they are!] Words: 440

My 3 favorite barometers for gauging investor sentiment in order to predict market outlook...are SPY as a proxy for U.S. stock markets...GLD as a proxy for commodities and TLT as a proxy for U.S. bonds, and when these 3 markets make big moves, it´s time to pay attention to what they´re saying. [Let's review] how these 3 markets reacted during the crisis of 2009-2009 and then compare them to current market conditions. [Doing so] can give you an edge to be better positioned for the rest of this year. Words: 972

You don’t need [actual] deflation—a reduction in the outstanding supply of money—to have markets react to a decrease in the rate of money supply growth..., anticipate the eventual deflation [and begin to price it into the market. Remember 2008?] Oil prices fell from $147 in July of 2008 to $33 per barrel by early 2009. The S&P 500 went into free-fall starting in September of 2008 and bottomed out in March of 2009—falling almost 50% in six months. This is what has already happened to the gold mining sector but, remember, central banks may be on a counterfeiting holiday right now but they have a history of taking very short vacations.

With stocks declining in the last few weeks all the various sentiment surveys point to excessive bearishness/excessive fear. That's in spite of the fact that market based indicators such as the VIX Index are not showing very much fear at all. While this market is deeply oversold and due for a relief rally, these readings are suggestive that there is more downside before we see an intermediate term bottom. [Let me explain.] Words: 290

Once every year gold and stocks form a major yearly cycle low while other commodities form a major cycle bottom every 2 1/2 to 3 years. Occasionally all three of these major cycles hit at the same time....That's what's happening right now and it should lead to a powerful rally over the next 2 years, culminating in 2014 when the dollar forms its next 3 year cycle low. Words: 622

We are at a major crossroads in the equity and bond markets. We could see a major 'risk-on' rally in the S&P 500 BUT if no equity rally ensues, and U.S. Treasury note yields keep falling, then something terrible is about to strike at the heart of the global capital markets.... [As such, it is imperative that you keep a close eye on this new 'Peak Price' indicator. Let me explain.] Words: 450

A top analyst at Citibank has told King World News that global stock markets are set to plunge 27%...the panic will move global bond markets to extreme levels, but gold will remain firm.