Tag Archives: S&P 500

We are at a major crossroads in the equity and bond markets. We could see a major 'risk-on' rally in the S&P 500 BUT if no equity rally ensues, and U.S. Treasury note yields keep falling, then something terrible is about to strike at the heart of the global capital markets.... [As such, it is imperative that you keep a close eye on this new 'Peak Price' indicator. Let me explain.] Words: 450

A top analyst at Citibank has told King World News that global stock markets are set to plunge 27%...the panic will move global bond markets to extreme levels, but gold will remain firm.

Marc Faber has stated in an interview* on Bloomberg Television that “I think the market will have difficulties to move up strongly unless we have a massive QE3 (something Faber thinks would "definitely occur" if the S&P 500 dropped another 100 to 150 points. If it bounces back to 1,400, he said, the Fed will probably wait to see how the economy develops)..... If the market makes a new high, it will be with very few stocks pushing up and the majority of stocks having already rolled over....If it moves and makes a high above 1,422, the second half of the year could witness a crash, like in 1987.” Words: 708

In spite of all the bearishness out there - the S&P 500 falling to 1,000 (David Tice),the market is overbought (John Hussman), its looking like the bear market of 2011 all over again (David Rosenberg), for example - I tend to disagree for 4 fundamental reasons. Let me explain. Words: 595

The U.S. Dollar Index is signaling that this rally might have a bit more room to run. [Let me explain.] Words: 400

At the end of November 2011 the U.S. behavioral indicator for the U.S. stock market, based on insights on investor psychology, touched the crisis threshold for the fifth time (1971,1979, 1986, 2006) since 1970. If the current case follows the four prior cases, we expect a similar positive return from November 2011 to the end of October 2012 as in the four prior periods followed by a decline somewhere between 15% and 30%. [Let me explain.] Words: 317

Initial unemployment claims may be the most important economic indicator for the stock market in 2012. It is one of the three components of our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which is highly correlated with the S&P 500, [see graph below] so if initial unemployment claims remain under 400,000 and possibly continue to head lower during January, that would support the strong stock market rally that has kicked off the New Year so far. Words: 395

Stocks and commodities are under pressure from the rising dollar. We have already seen a sizable pullback but there may be more to come in the next few trading sessions. While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right in. Words: 222

The past few years have seen the development of the notion that GLD and SLV represent uncorrelated plays on the market, making them safe haven bets for your portfolio. Looking at historical trends (aside from 2011), [however,] one would have to go back to 2007 to find a year where these two metals weren’t highly correlated to the S&P 500. For all of 2011, both ETFs have featured low correlation, but as recent trading weeks have shown, old habits die hard, as the two ETFs have fallen back into a highly correlated trend. Let's take a look at the particulars.] Words: 672

Constructing a portfolio for the retirement years requires one to focus on portfolio risk or uncertainty while not neglecting return. If the portfolio asset allocation plan is too conservative, the return will not meet lifestyle expectations. Inflation is again on the rise and this needs to be taken into consideration when putting together a retirement oriented portfolio. Below is a combination of index ETFs that project respectable returns while holding down portfolio volatility. Words: 455