Tag Archives: S&P 500

At the end of November 2011 the U.S. behavioral indicator for the U.S. stock market, based on insights on investor psychology, touched the crisis threshold for the fifth time (1971,1979, 1986, 2006) since 1970. If the current case follows the four prior cases, we expect a similar positive return from November 2011 to the end of October 2012 as in the four prior periods followed by a decline somewhere between 15% and 30%. [Let me explain.] Words: 317

Initial unemployment claims may be the most important economic indicator for the stock market in 2012. It is one of the three components of our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which is highly correlated with the S&P 500, [see graph below] so if initial unemployment claims remain under 400,000 and possibly continue to head lower during January, that would support the strong stock market rally that has kicked off the New Year so far. Words: 395

Stocks and commodities are under pressure from the rising dollar. We have already seen a sizable pullback but there may be more to come in the next few trading sessions. While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right in. Words: 222

The past few years have seen the development of the notion that GLD and SLV represent uncorrelated plays on the market, making them safe haven bets for your portfolio. Looking at historical trends (aside from 2011), [however,] one would have to go back to 2007 to find a year where these two metals weren’t highly correlated to the S&P 500. For all of 2011, both ETFs have featured low correlation, but as recent trading weeks have shown, old habits die hard, as the two ETFs have fallen back into a highly correlated trend. Let's take a look at the particulars.] Words: 672

Constructing a portfolio for the retirement years requires one to focus on portfolio risk or uncertainty while not neglecting return. If the portfolio asset allocation plan is too conservative, the return will not meet lifestyle expectations. Inflation is again on the rise and this needs to be taken into consideration when putting together a retirement oriented portfolio. Below is a combination of index ETFs that project respectable returns while holding down portfolio volatility. Words: 455

Seasonality tells us that statistically the months from the end of October through the end of April are in fact the best months of the year for investing while the six months from May through October (the “sell in May and go away” strategy), are the worst but is there any validity to what’s sometimes known as “the Halloween indicator?” [Let's take a look.] Words: 460

A look at the chart for SLV from September 2007 to August 2008 (11 months) and from November 2010 to October 2011 (11 months) is remarkably similar - almost identical in fact. Therefore, if silver continues to trace out a similar path to what transpired in 2008, what are the possible implications for stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals? Take a look at the following 19 charts for some possible outcomes. Words: 731

There is more than enough reason to believe that U.S. stocks are in a bear market regardless of what percentage drop has taken place. [Let's take a look at stock momentum, various moving averages, volatility and certain technical indicators to see what they have to say in this regard.] Words: 700

Despite the outlook for relatively weak economic growth in the near future, the S&P 500... [should rise dramatically during the next 75 days] based on historical precedent – namely, the “Presidential Cycle.” [Let's take a look at the specifics.] Words: 405

How does the current behavior of the global financial markets compare with the two recent crises, namely the great financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the minor one in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone developed? [I have analyzed 15 aspects of the markets and have concluded that over the next 2/3 months we should see, among other things, increased volatility, declining S&P 500 and MSCI World indices, a bottoming in the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield, renewed U.S. dollar weakness, renewed strength in the price of gold and silver with silver outperforming that of gold. Take a look at the 19 charts below to see for yourself.] Words: 825