Tag Archives: S&P 500

History shows that when investors experience a rapid decline in the amount of available cash in their brokerage account to spend/invest quickly such "negative net worth" leads to major corrections in the stock market. Currently such is the case so can we expect another such decline or will it be different this time?

Since the late 1800's, the Dow has experienced three periods where it traded sideways, ranging from 13 to 17 years, [which always] resulted in upside breakouts . The S&P 500 finds itself within a few percentage points of where it was 13 years ago [so the question is "Has the time now come for the Dow and S&P 500 to once again go Up, UP and Awaaay?" Let's take a look at some charts.] Words: 299; Charts: 2

The Swimsuit Issue Indicator says that U.S. equity markets perform better in years when an American appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated's annual issue as opposed to years when a non-American appears on the cover. [What is the nationality of this year's cover model? Can we expect returns above the norm or will we see a year of underperformance for the S&P 500 this year? Read on.] Words: 323 ; Table: 1

Investors are more bullish now than at any time since 2002 but the current rally has not been fueled by improved prospects of actual growth and wealth creation. Instead, it’s mostly due to 1) investors desperate for income denied them elsewhere by central bank policies; 2) printed stimulus cash seeking a home and 3) sheer technical momentum but nowhere do they seem to be considering market risk - the risk that your investment will lose value because it gets dragged down in a falling market. Words: 615

Higher (lower) inflation expectations have remained closely bound with higher (lower) stock prices [of late but] this odd connection won't last forever...[but] until that changes, it's best to go with the flow....[This article explains] the new abnormal. Words: 266

Ever since the Dow broke the 14,000 mark and the S&P broke the 1,500 mark, even in the face of a shrinking GDP print, a lot of investors and commentators have been anxious. Some are proclaiming a rocket ride to the moon as bond money now rotates into stocks....[while] others are ringing the warning bell that this may be the beginning of the end, and a correction is likely coming. I find it a bit surprising, however, that no one is talking of the single largest driver for stocks in the past 4 years - massive monetary base expansion by the Fed. (This article does just that and concludes that the S&P 500 could well see a year end number of 1872 (+25%) and, realistically, another 28% increase in 2014 to 2387 which would represent a 60% increase from today's level.) Words: 600; Charts: 3

For the month of January, U.S. stocks experienced the best month in more than two decades [and the Dow hit 14,009 on Feb. 1st for the first time since 2007]. Per the Stock Traders’ Almanac market indicator, the “January Barometer,” the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the first month of the year dictates where stock prices will head for the year. Let’s hope so.... [This article identifies f more solid reasons why equities should do well in 2013.] Words: 453

[In spite of what] the typical Wall Street cheerleaders, I mean strategists, are predicting, we see the equity market ever more closer to its cyclical top, miners about to retest a major bottom and hard assets with a new catalyst. [This article analyzes 9 pieces of information, complete with charts, that show what is actually going on in the marketplace at this point in time and what the short-term future holds.] Words: 930; Charts: 8

If you traded and invested in 2012 and came out okay, then you are to be commended, [because] this was a tough one no matter what the index statistics say. Nerve-wracking doesn't even come close as a descriptor. [In fact,] we were Riverdancing on a frozen-over pond with steel-tipped boots and ice sharks swimming below the cracking surface just waiting for us to fall through - and those ice sharks had some kind of weird fish syphilis. Words: 1511

Since 2012 is rapidly coming to a close, I’m fielding questions about what the future holds for 2013. My hope? That my answers will be both informative and instructive, and ultimately profitable, of course. Words: 1588; Charts: 2