Sunday , 14 April 2024

Tag Archives: Robert Shiller

Motivated Stock Pickers CAN Beat the Market! Here’s How (+4K Views)

What hope can there be for motivated stock pickers to outperform the low-cost index funds that simply mechanically track the market? Well - in spite of the absurd rise of the Nobel-acclaimed, and highly promoted, Efficient Market Hypothesis that claims that individual investors can't beat the market - it turns out there is plenty! [Let me explain.] Words: 1574

Read More »

14 Prognoses of Doom & Gloom for Economy Starting in ’14 (+2K Views)

Some of the most respected prognosticators in the financial world are warning that what is coming in 2014 and beyond is going to shake America to the core. Many of the quotes that you are about to read are from individuals that actually predicted the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis of 2008 ahead of time so they have a track record of being right. Does that guarantee that they will be right about what is coming in 2014? Of course not. In fact, as you will see below, not all of them agree about exactly what is coming next but, without a doubt, all of their forecasts are quite ominous.

Read More »

Shiller & Siegel Forecasts of Future Real Stock Market Returns Differ Considerably (+2K Views)

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

Read More »

Both Stocks and Bonds are Expensive! Here's Why

[We have determined that] the current cyclically adjusted real yield of 5.28% is telling us that the stock market is expensive, at least by historical standards. [In addition,] ...we have also determined that, relative to bonds, the real spread between stocks and bonds is 7.2% in terms of yields, i.e., stocks relative to bonds seem cheap. If stocks are expensive, and stocks relative to bonds seem cheap, this implies that bonds are also expensive. Everything is expensive! [Let me show you the math that confirms just that.] Words: 1590

Read More »

Why We Need a "Good" Depression Now – Not a "Great" Depression Later!

Do not raise the debt-ceiling. You heard me: block the debt ceiling vote. Don’t raise it. America’s out-of-control, a debt addict. It is time to detox - to deal with the collateral damage [now] before it’s too late. We need to fix America’s looming credit default, failing economy and our screwed-up banking system now - with a Good Depression. If we just kick the can down the road one more time, we’ll be trapped into repeating our 1930’s tragedy - a second Great Depression. [Let me explain.] Words: 1422

Read More »

A Violent Correction Is Coming For the S&P 500! Here's Why

Valuation-based forecasting models leave little doubt that stocks are priced to deliver very poor long-term returns and the cyclical bull market from 2009 is an extreme move that will almost certainly be followed by a violent correction. [Let me explain.] Words: 701

Read More »