When will silver rise to higher values? Answer: No one knows. It has taken longer than most thought, and it will continue to take longer than most believe, but there is one thing for sure, the price of silver will retest the old high, and then proceed to exceed it, by at least a double.
The above are edited excerpts from an article* written by Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) originally entitled Silver – A Technical Perspective.
[The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]
Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
Everyone in the world who follows silver knows the importance of $26 for silver. Until price can rally and hold above it, do not expect higher levels. It is that simple
While some of you may think it is difficult to read a chart, all that is required is a bit of common sense attached to the explanations we provide with each chart. The charts relate a story of the news/facts/figures, just in bar form. This is what the market is saying, as of last Friday.
Silver – Weekly Chart
As noted in the chart below, there is a small 8 week base that is currently being retested by another small trading range. Whenever a trading range retests and holds above the previous one, it has a bullish connotation.
Because silver is in an overall down trend, upside strength is not a dominate factor, so expect additional time required to develop a more overtly bullish character.
Silver – Daily Chart
As noted in the daily chart below, the two bars at rally high “A” showed EDM, (Ease of Downward Movement) on high volume, as price declined. At the current low of the decline, “B,” there is another high volume effort, but instead of showing EDM, the two bars overlap one another.
When you see overlapping bars, it is indicative of a balance between the efforts of buyers and sellers. The fact that buyers were more responsive at the low of the correction speaks well for the prospects that support may hold.
- If it is to be support, there will be the beginnings of another rally.
- If support disappears, lower prices will result.
- That answer will come next week.
We do not have to guess which, but instead follow the market’s lead, either way. For sure, if price declines, one would not want to be a buyer, based on the message of the market.
Silver – 90 Minute Intra-day Chart
As illustrated in the chart below, there was a high volume rally on 15 October (left side of chart) that was retested three times at the 21.10 area, and that led to another strong rally. From that kind of market development, we can expect buyers to defend that support area on a retest. That retest is now at hand.
There also was a wide range, high volume decline, last Thursday [note 1]. On Friday, there was another sell-off [note 2] on the highest intra day volume in over a month.
[Given that] volume is a measure of effort…[and] the effort was the greatest in recent days, why was the net result so little? (Keep these last two bars [1 & 2] in mind in relation to the daily chart, above, where the discussion centered on overlapping bars, a balance between buys and sellers.)
- [Perhaps it was because]…the increased effort failed to reach the support from the 21.10 area (when it was more than opportune to not only retest but even break it. After all, silver is in a down trend.)
- [Perhaps] the two bars are reflecting a balance or
- perhaps reflecting that of more buyers overcoming sellers in preparation for a rally.
It takes time to turn a market around, and silver is in that process. There is no degree of certainty that a bottom has been reached, but there exist at least a probability the recent lows may hold. Whether the lows hold or not, one cannot lose sight of why accumulating silver has been so important. When price finally accelerates higher, the trying of one’s patience will quickly be forgotten and all will be well.
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
Other Noonan Articles:
Some of the finest and most highly regarded minds in the world of PMs have been saying gold and silver are going higher…[but] the charts have “said” otherwise, and that has been the correct read…The fundamentals may be as bullish as can be [but] the charts are sending a different message. Read More »
Using past history of how price responds, it is likely that gold, and silver, could move sideways for another year or two. While this flies in the face of so many current, supposedly “expert”, opinions [mine is not based on opinion but, rather, is strictly based on the facts as conveyed by the charts. Take a look and you will see that too!] Read More »
Below is a perfect example of how the charts timed the movement in the price of gold and silver over the past week. Yes, you CAN time the market as this article clearly demonstrates! When the market “talks,” we listen.] Read More »
The window of opportunity to buy physical gold and silver continues to narrow. Like the housing market top was known to be coming, when it came, those who waited too long regretted it. When the bottom for the physical PMs is known as a certainty, those who waited for a “better price” may also regret that decision. It is all about choice. Read More »
In an election, it does not matter if voter turnout is high or low, the outcome is determined by the actual votes cast. The same holds true for the markets. Only those who make an actual buy or sell decision determine the outcome of the market trend. The market “voters” turn up in charts, recorded in the price range, close, and volume. Collectively, a “story” unfolds, and it usually is an accurate one as it does not include any opinions. Opinions do not matter. Articles written about fundamentals, pundit declarations, etc., all fall under the category of opinions. The market is the best source for information, and that is a fact. Read More »
…Fiats have an unbroken track record of failing throughout all of history. Gold also has an unbroken track record of being a store of value for over 5,000 years. Yes, there have been hiccups along the way, and we are in one now. It is what it is, but what it is is also an incredible buying opportunity at “fire sale” prices….[That being said,] a look at the charts of the paper-tracked PM market [beg the question] … “Where’s the beef?” Where is the substance of anything? We see none in the charts. Take a look. Words: 610; Charts :4 Read More »
Technical analysis is a measure different from fundamental analysis…and we qualifying our approach with a specialized subset of technical analysis. How so? We read price and volume behavior, over time, in the form of developing market activity. It is what one sees on a chart, price ranges, close locations, volume, time factor[s], but no more. Below are charts that suggest that the weakness in silver may be coming to an end, sooner now rather than later, but that for now, it is what it is – and what is, is reality. Read More »
You will read more and more articles touting how gold and silver have bottomed. They have not, at least according to price behavior as determined by actual buyers and sellers in the market. Read More »
Charts speak the loudest…and they never lie…[because they are] the true record of all buy and sell decisions executed, coming from the most informed to the least informed. Most of the problems lie with those who form an opinion, and how they choose to impose it onto what any given chart “says.” My understanding of what the quarterly monthly, weekly and daily charts are conveying about the price action of silver is, simply,] “Silver stackers, these lower prices are a gift you should keep on taking. Stay tuned.” Read More »
Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have been calling for considerably higher prices. Over the past several months none called for sub-$1,300 gold and sub-$20 silver. Crystal balls do not work and never have. When it comes to markets, anything can happen [but the charts convey that] there is no apparent ending action suggesting a selling climax or even a cause for a reaction rally. Take a look. Read More »