…Fiats have an unbroken track record of failing throughout all of history. Gold also has an unbroken track record of being a store of value for over 5,000 years. Yes, there have been hiccups along the way, and we are in one now. It is what it is, but what it is is also an incredible buying opportunity at “fire sale” prices….[That being said,] the charts of the paper-tracked PM market [begs the question] … “Where’s the beef?” Where is the substance of anything? We see none in the charts. Take a look. Words: 610; Charts: 4
So writes Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com/) in edited excerpts from his original* article entitled Gold And Silver – Contrary To Popular Belief, Paper Is The Bellwether For Near-Term Precious Metals.
[The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]
Noonan goes on to say:
How long will it take for a final bottom to occur in PMs? No one knows….When will fiat inflation come?…The bigger question…is: When will PM price “inflation” show up?…[The answer:]…gold never has inflation problems. Its counter-measure in fiat currencies always does.
For us, the surest signs of problems will show up in those New World Order (NWO) paper markets, aka COMEX and LMBA. They are the bellwether to watch, for as long as price is captured in these so-called markets, the price of physical gold and silver remains captured within them, regardless of anyone’s opinion of the paper markets. Why is that? It should not be, but it is.
Looking at the “faux” paper markets, they are like any other chart of any other market, they go up, down, and move sideways. Like any market, it takes time to turn a trend. From a down trend, a market usually goes sideways, allowing for smart money to cover shorts and establish longs. We will not pass on the merits of smart money already accumulating positions, albeit in the physical market, not in paper, and that could create an exception to a sideways move and lead to a V-Bottom, where price explodes to the upside.
In either event, a look at the charts of the paper-tracked PM market [begs the question] … “Where’s the beef?” Where is the substance of anything? We see none in the charts [as shown below].
Gold – Weekly Chart
Weekly trend remains down. There was evidence of a potential upside breakout rally two weeks ago but no follow-through. It is possible last week was a supporting retest, but that will have to be confirmed by higher prices in the week coming, or gold will continue to languish in its paper malaise.
Gold – Daily Chart
The daily shows what is needed, more clearly than the weekly…If paper prices are to continue higher, there should be more evidence of absorption in the coming week. If not, this market remains weak.
Silver – Weekly Chart
Silver is a totally different market. Unlike the labored retest in gold, note how labored the rally effort has been since the week-ending 21 July wide-range decline. It could be a reflection of the manipulation of the paper market, which makes a degree of sense, for the natural law of supply and demand has been missing during the JPMorgan take-down.
Any argument for a silver recovery remains a fragile one until that market shows demand in the form of strong rally bars on increased volume….
Silver – Daily Chart
Charts do not lie…if you were to take all of the PM pundits, along with the sky-high predictions of where the price of gold and silver are to be, and stack them all against a few charts, based on results, who/which has been more accurate? All pundits have been way off, as to timing, and continue to be. [I rest my case!]
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
Related Articles by Michael Noonan:
Technical analysis is a measure different from fundamental analysis…and we qualifying our approach with a specialized subset of technical analysis. How so? We read price and volume behavior, over time, in the form of developing market activity. It is what one sees on a chart, price ranges, close locations, volume, time factor[s], but no more. Below are charts that suggest that the weakness in silver may be coming to an end, sooner now rather than later, but that for now, it is what it is – and what is, is reality. Read More »
The window of opportunity to buy physical gold and silver continues to narrow. Like the housing market top was known to be coming, when it came, those who waited too long regretted it. When the bottom for the physical PMs is known as a certainty, those who waited for a “better price” may also regret that decision. It is all about choice. Read More »
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Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have been calling for considerably higher prices. Over the past several months none called for sub-$1,300 gold and sub-$20 silver. Crystal balls do not work and never have. When it comes to markets, anything can happen [but the charts convey that] there is no apparent ending action suggesting a selling climax or even a cause for a reaction rally. Take a look. Read More »
Charts provide certainty, for they are absolute and the final word at the end of day, week, month, etc. There can be no dispute over a bar’s high, low and close, plus the volume, for whatever the time period under consideration. There is a high degree of logic within them and, while there can be differences of opinion over their interpretation, establishing a fixed set of parameters can mitigate most any potential dispute. So just what are the charts saying about the current trend in gold and silver? Let’s take a look. Read More »
Never go against the market. It does not matter what your beliefs are…It does not matter what the fundamentals are either. [What matters] is the TREND! Once you know the trend is up you need a game plan on how to participate from the buy side and when the trend is down, a plan ion how to participate from the short side. If there is no trend, then the odds are not favorable for either game plan.[So exactly what are the charts saying about the trend in gold and silver these days? Read on!] Read More »
You cannot control what others do, especially those in power. You can control what you do. Just keep buying, regardless of price, because if/when the price of gold and silver were to go lower, you may not be able to buy. If/when the price of gold and silver were to go higher, it may be at such an accelerated rate that any price in the past few years seem cheap. Words: 550 Read More »