Economic Overviews

Japan will continue its radical quantitative easing but the experiment is getting dangerous. The Bank of Japan is effectively exporting its deflation to its trade competitors and inviting a currency war that could shake the world.

In the very near future we will finally know the answer to the question, “Is the euro a currency or an experiment?” The changes required to answer that question will be wrenching and horrifically expensive. There are no good answers, only difficult choices about who pays how much and to whom.

I think there is a 70% probability that it will do so within the next five years and the probability that China will suffer either a hard landing OR a long period of Japanese-style stagnation...is over 95%.

If you think the Fed or government agencies know what is going on with the economy, you're mistaken. Government economists are about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Their mistakes and failures are so spectacular you couldn't make them up if you tried.

Martin Armstrong believes that EVERYTHING is connected and this interconnectedness is at the foundation of Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model and his ability to predict what we call the future.

Is this economic recovery real? Well, if you base your observations on how far the Dow has risen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the answer would be a yes. However, if you do just a little cursory digging you will notice that this economic recovery is nothing but a grand illusion. The following 8 factors clearly prove that this recovery is not real.

If imports and exports are both falling, that means consumption is weak pretty much everywhere, and weak consumption means slow or negative growth which means lower corporate profits, which, if history is still a valid guide, means less valuable equities, so could it be that the markets are simply figuring this out and revaluing assets accordingly?

Don’t tie your fortune to a rising market – and I mean any kind of market anywhere on the globe. This is a time to think strategically, stay hedged and diversified, and avoid big directional bets. I think active and hedged management will be the place to be in the coming period. To quote the motto of House Stark in Game of Thrones, winter is coming...

China is only becoming more indebted, even as its economy slows down. By 2014, China's total debt reached $28 trillion, according to McKinsey & Co. That is roughly half the world's entire debt. In this article we show what's happened to Chinese debt and why people are starting to worry about it.

The following are my best economic “guesses” for the coming year, based on the statistical and technical data trends, for the market, interest rates, the dollar, employment and the economy.