Economic Overviews

Global deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership will boost the profits of Wall Street and big corporations, and make the richest 1% even richer but they’ll contribute to the steady shrinkage of the American middle class.

There's change afoot in the gold market...the spot price has rallied by over 15% since the year began... the first upswing in a very long time. It is my belief that we will see this upswing continue strongly over the next year. Here's why.

The global equities markets is not the only place where the China sell-off has had an effect. It has seeped into the global economy, slumping shipping and slowing global trade...[to the point where] the Baltic Dry Index is at an ALL TIME LOW. As the year progresses, it will be interesting to keep an eye on the BDI and track its movement - especially as it relates to China and commodity prices.

Japan will continue its radical quantitative easing but the experiment is getting dangerous. The Bank of Japan is effectively exporting its deflation to its trade competitors and inviting a currency war that could shake the world.

In the very near future we will finally know the answer to the question, “Is the euro a currency or an experiment?” The changes required to answer that question will be wrenching and horrifically expensive. There are no good answers, only difficult choices about who pays how much and to whom.

I think there is a 70% probability that it will do so within the next five years and the probability that China will suffer either a hard landing OR a long period of Japanese-style stagnation...is over 95%.

If you think the Fed or government agencies know what is going on with the economy, you're mistaken. Government economists are about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Their mistakes and failures are so spectacular you couldn't make them up if you tried.

Martin Armstrong believes that EVERYTHING is connected and this interconnectedness is at the foundation of Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model and his ability to predict what we call the future.

Is this economic recovery real? Well, if you base your observations on how far the Dow has risen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the answer would be a yes. However, if you do just a little cursory digging you will notice that this economic recovery is nothing but a grand illusion. The following 8 factors clearly prove that this recovery is not real.

If imports and exports are both falling, that means consumption is weak pretty much everywhere, and weak consumption means slow or negative growth which means lower corporate profits, which, if history is still a valid guide, means less valuable equities, so could it be that the markets are simply figuring this out and revaluing assets accordingly?