Don’t you just hate that gloating expression “I told you so!” Well, unfortunately some analysts had the foresight to forecast prices of $1,200 per troy ounce (or less!) and $19 silver (or less!) several months ago.
The articles of these analysts, in sharp contrast to the projections of $5,000 gold, $10,000 gold, $150 silver, $300 silver, and even higher by others, are worth a re-visit for their enlightened insights. Here are just a few of them:
The gold price will likely decline to $1,150 next spring but should find enough buyer support from physical buyers and jewelry makers to prevent a fall below $1,000.
An analysis of the ratio between the market capitalization of gold (MCG) and the gross world product (GWP) over the past 63 years suggests that the current price for gold has further to fall and that it would not be wise to begin buying gold until prices have fallen below at least $1100 or $950.
As the U.S. economy continues to improve steadily, the Federal Reserve prepares to dial back its QE policy, and investors continue to rotate into stocks, the price of gold is poised to fall further. Look for another down leg in the range of $1,000 to $900 an ounce. That’s another 20% to 25% loss.
If you want to make rabbit stew, first, you have to catch the rabbit so hopefully, first, we’ll see some concrete signs that a bottom is in before the regurgitation of “Gold is going to $10,000!” starts showing up in a host of new articles pandering for attention. The best way is to decide for yourself…so let us go to the most reliable source, the market, and see what the prices of gold and silver have to say about what everyone else has been saying about them. People have been known to exaggerate, even lie in their “opinions,” but the market never does either.
An earlier article on gold & silver went viral with almost 30,000 reads on munKNEE.com alone and continues to be read by hundreds of goldbugs daily. Below is an updated chart and analysis suggesting that gold & silver have further to drop before they go parabolic. Take a look and share it with friends.
So claims Greg Guenthner who has stated that once gold breached $1,350 it would plummet to $1,200 – $1.250. So far, so good, but will his $1,000 – $1,100 price for gold come true?
Roubini expects gold will fall below $1,000/oz, taking prices down to approximately 30% from current levels; a point not seen since 2007. Here’s why. Read More »
I am now bearish on gold because the bulls are bullish for all the wrong reasons, and the price action is supporting my position. In my opinion, gold is being supported by pillars of sand – 19 in total – and the tide is coming in.
Scott Grannis thinks gold could fall to $1000, or even less, as it realigns with other commodity prices.
Related Articles – Gold:
In this exclusive interview, Eric Sprott answers questions about the gold and silver market in which he suggests that gold could double in a year and, in the case of silver, could go up even more than that. As for gold and silver equities, he believes gains could be gargantuan, because the equities always double or triple the performance of physical gold. Here’s his reasoning.
In the last several months, the world economic crisis has entered a new elevated level of perma-crisis and constant tension, widely recognized as something more serious, more dangerous, and more risk-filled. This new normal is neither without resolution nor the attempt to resolve anything and, as such, is why the price of gold will rise to $5,000 per troy ounce, then higher, and at the same time, the silver price will rise multiples higher. Let me explain.
I am not predicting a future price of gold or the date that gold will trade at $4,000, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for gold to trade at $4,000 per troy ounce. Yes, $4,000 gold is completely plausible if you assume the following:
We now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4,500. [Let me explain in detail (with charts) how and why my most recent analyses confirm my earlier target of $4,500.] Words: 1085
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The closing of the gold window back in August 1971 has led governments worldwide to create endless amounts of worthless paper money and the resulting credit bubble has created a world debt exposure of over US$ 1 quadrillion (including derivatives). It has also created perceived wealth for big parts of the world’s population – a wealth which is only backed by promises to pay and by grossly inflated assets. Few people realise that this wealth is totally illusory and will implode considerably faster than the time it took to create it. [Let me explain.] Words: 890
My Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull and we still stand by that forecast. Let me explain where we are at this point in time.
This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767
The correlation between the gold price from 1968 until 1979 and from early 2000 until today is an amazing 89.65%! More specifically, the correlation from 1975 until April 1979 and from January 2008 until today is an astonishing 97.83% suggesting that gold will reach an ultimate top of $5,000 per troy ounce before the bubble bursts. Words: 330
I believe that the price of gold will… reach… $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 [per troy] ounce…during the course of this long-lasting bull market, a bull market that still has years of life left to it…[although] prices will remain extremely volatile – with big swings both up and down along a rising trend…The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, demographic, and political developments [and in this article] I review some of these developments and trends – so that you can come to your own “golden” conclusions. Words: 3800
The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies [and that] gold is just creating the conditions – a T-1 pattern – necessary for its next leg up to what I expect to be…around $3200 sometime in late 2014 or early 2015. [Let me explain.] Words: 560; Charts: 3
There is a nasty game taking place which relies entirely on scaring you out of your wits. Yes, out of your mind, so you sell something of great value for peanuts to the exact party playing with your head via price. When you must look at the action, remember there is a buyer for every seller. That buyer is not scared out of his/her wits if you sell to stop the pain you are in. This period is, in my opinion, the last and largest attack you will see perpetrated on us before gold closes over $3500. This period of pain will not be measured in months, but counted in history as days. Stand firm and stay the course! Words: 787
Related Articles – Silver:
For the first time in 2013, Silver and the Gold/Silver ratio are breaking above their falling resistance lines and that’s a positive for Silver. The last time the Gold/Silver ratio broke resistance in 2010, Silver rallied well over 100% in a matter of months. Are the patterns suggesting another 100% rally in Silver?
Bubbles tend to follow the 80/20 ratio indicated in the Pareto Principle where approximately 80% of the price move occurs in the LAST 20% of the time. That being the case it would appear that gold and silver could conceivably top out around $9,000 per troy ounce and $250/ozt respectively. This is not a prediction of future prices of gold and silver; it is an indication of what could happen in a speculative bubble environment based on the history of previous bubbles. Words: 1280; Charts: 1
Thanks to this similarity in events, as well as the similarity in sequence, of the price movement of silver from the beginning of 1966 to the beginning of 1980 with the end of 1999 to the end 2013, my analysis suggests that silver will comfortably pass $150 by that date. Let me explain my rationale. Words: 338
There are many predictions for the price of silver. Some say it will crash to nearly $20, and others proclaim $100 by the end of 2012. The problem is that some predictions are only wishful thinking, others are obvious disinformation designed to scare investors away from silver, and many are not grounded in hard data and clear analysis. Other analyses are excellent, but both the processes and analyses are difficult to understand. Is there an objective and rational method to project a future silver price that will make sense to most people? Yes, there is! [And here it is!] Words: 1071
I believe that silver could go to $60 per troy ounce by the end of 2014….I also believe silver will be the best single investment of this decade. The following article is focused on why I think you should seriously consider having a significant percentage of your investment portfolio in silver. Words: 1600
Personally, based on the fundamentals at hand and the fact that Gold doubled its log channel around this point in the cycle; I expect Silver to bust up out of its log channel in 2013. Initially, I look for Silver to reach the $60 to $68 level, first and hold open the possibility for Silver to do much more on the upside as the 70’s Silver Chart reflects.
Silver has given returns of 584% in the last ten years and this article discusses the reasons for believing that silver can produce another decade of over 500% returns. Words: 954; Charts: 7
According to David Morgan 2013 will be a bullish year in which a new leg up will start with gold going up 10% to 20% and silver a good 30%. That leg up is starting right now, although we probably will not see a substantial acceleration in the leg up like we saw in the first part of 2011 but, obviously, as soon as $50 is crossed an acceleration can be expected. [Morgan explains his position in article excerpts below.] Words: 912
The process of the devaluation of gold and silver, started by the demonetization of gold and silver, is about to reverse at a greater speed than ever before. Read More »