Thursday , 13 June 2024

Gold Watch: 6 Forecasters Who Got It Terribly Wrong (+3K Views)

Many analysts believe they have insights that enable them goldto predict the future. They forecast gold going anywhere from $2,600 to $5,000 before the end of 2012 or by the end of 2013 at the latest. Unfortunately, the reading public quickly forgot their prognostications and continue to put credence in their latest crystal ball predictions. This site has decided to call their number. Below is a list of those bold enough to forecast the price of gold reaching a particular price by a specific date and missing the mark.

By: Lorimer Wilson,  editor of (Your Key to Making Money!) and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here).

Below is a list of some of their recent forecasts on what they thought the future movement in the price of physical gold would be and how very wrong they were.

1. Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Puts Gold Near $4,000 by 2013 and $7-10,000 by

2020 how-to-value-and-invest-in-gold




Back in January, 2012 David Petch ( concluded, using Contracting Fibonacci Spiral analysis, that gold would reach $3,074 by January 2013. Since that did not happen how much credence should be put on his $7-10,000 projection?

2. David Nichols: Expect to See $2,750 – $3,000 Gold By June 2013 – Here’s Why Multiple-forms-of-gold-bullion

Back in February, 2012 David Nichols ( stated: “If we…make the not-so-difficult assumption that gold is launching into another 21-month cycle to the upside — thank you Fed, thank you ECB — the target for this move is $2,750 to $3,000, with the next peak scheduled to arrive in June 2013, early July at the latest.  Nichols qualified his forecast by going on to say: “My projections…are subject to revision as real-time data comes in to confirm or refute. The key is to remain aware of the big road-map, but flexible if events don’t unfold as expected” and he couldn’t have been more off the mark.

3. Leeb: Gold Going to $3,000 Before the End of 2012! gold-bullion2




In January 2012 Stephen Leeb exclaimed that the Fed’s plan to keep interest rates at zero until the end of 2014  was as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold. Inflation would be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years and that, in such an environment, gold and silver were the best investments around stating “We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market…This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012.” If the above wasn’t bad enough read Stephen Leeb: Silver’s Going to $60, $70, by the End of 2012 – Easy!

4. Is Gold About to Go Parabolic to $3,495 in June ’13; $10,899 in Sept. ’14 and Top Out at $32,659 on Jan. 16, 2015? Multiple-forms-of-gold-bullion




Back in February 2012 Nick Laird ( prepared and posted an Elliott Wave theory analysis that projected that gold should go to $3,495 in June 2013, $6,233 in April 2014, $10,899 in Sept. 2014, $18,712 in December 2014 and culminating in a parabolic peak price of $31,672 on January 16th, 2015! I’ve checked out his web site and he still has his chart and calculations posted there in spite of grossly missing the $3,495 level in June. Will his projections for the future price of gold be any more accurate? It is hard to imagine that that will be the case.

5. von Greyetz: Gold Going to $3,500-$5,000 in 12-18 Months – and $10,000 Within 3 Years! how-to-value-and-invest-in-gold




Back in July, 2012 Egon von Greyetz claimed that gold would reach $3,500 to $5,000 sometime between July and December, 2013 (and silver would be well above $50) and $10,000 before mid 2015. He will be dead wrong on his 2013 prognostication unless something truly dramatic happens within the next 6 months. As for a price of $10,000 before July 2015, let’s wait and see.

6. Gold Might Spike to $2,600 in June and $4,866 in January 2015 gold-bars4




Back in March, 2013 the Approximity Gold Team ( pointed out that were similarities between the 5 major spikes in the price of gold since 2001 applied to the 5th price spike (August, 2011) going forward it would not be unreasonable to expect a spike to $2,600 in June or July of 2013 and another spike –  to somewhere between $4,700 and $5,050 – in January/February of 2015. So much for the June/July 2013 possibility of $2,600. We’ll have to wait and see what January/February 2015 brings forth.

Related Articles:

1. These 40+ Analysts See Gold Going to $5-6,000 (on average) By Late 2014/Early 2015 gold1




Analyst after analyst (in excess of 170 at last count) has been forecasting what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 43 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why.

2. Here’s the Track Record of Various Financial Pundits – Who’s Best?


Recently I discovered a website which tracks pundits in finance (and politics and sports) which does just that. Check it out to see how many of the calls and predictions of your favorite prognosticators have turned out to be true. You’ll be surprised and, no doubt, disappointed! Read More »

One comment

  1. Perhaps it would be good for munKNEE to devise a rating methodology that would enable them to include the authors “batting record” along with their comments, that way those that have the best track record could be given additional credibility! Perhaps one for the last year, last 5 years and Longer than 5 Years that might look something like this: 75%, 50%, NA.