Stock Indices

While no one can predict the exact peak, here are five reasons you're better off on the sidelines than in the market.

The U.S. stock market rally that kicked off the New Year continued last week, and after only two weeks, US stocks are up around 3% for the year. European stocks have posted similar gains and equities in Japan have advanced even further. What’s behind this rally – and more importantly, can it continue? In my view, the rally can be attributed to three factors. Words: 615

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has developed a chart showing the past two cycles in the S&P 500 highlighting peak and trough valuations. At face value it is very alarming as it suggests a potential decline of somewhere in the vicinity of 60% over the next year or two and concurs with previous innovative trend analyses included in this article. Charts: 4

[In spite of all that is seemingly wrong with the U.S. economy] I think we are on the verge of entering the euphoria stage of this cyclical bull market where traders become convinced that QE3 is a magic elexir with no unintended consequesnces. [As such,] I see a strong acceleration and a significant and sustained breakout above the S&P 500 September high of 1475. (Words: 264 + 3 charts)

Heard about the "Fiscal Cliff" lately? How many times have you heard it mentioned in the last few hours? Is the media coverage about the "Fiscal Cliff" causing investors to look or focus in the wrong direction for clues to the market's next significiant move?

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

The conventional stock market investing advice is rooted in myth - rooted in a false understanding of what the historical stock-return data says about investing for the long-term....Set forth below are five reasons why I believe that the conventional stock market investing advice must soon change. Words: 2067

The NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 index COULD BE forming one of the largest "Bearish Head & Shoulders" patterns in the past 100 years and IF they, in fact, are then we are about to see a 40% decline in those indices and the S&P 500 would most certainly follow suit. Take a look at the charts that tell the story. Words: 200

The Dow Jones Industrial Average composite (DJIA) hitting a five year high early last month does not bode well for the bulls. Frankly, I am predicting that the recent five year high...(October 5th) will prove to be the cyclical high in an ongoing secular bear market that has not yet hit its bear market low for this secular bear and that...it will not get to an all-time new high until 2015 at the earliest. Prepare to be nickled and dimed in the meantime! Words: 995

The U.S. economy is careening toward a fiscal cliff. Europe is stuck in a financial abyss. China is economy, a bastion of strength for the last decade, is throttling down. Given this less-than-rosy economic backdrop, how could I possibly predict that U.S. stocks are poised to rally as 2012 comes to a close? Glad you asked....Here are 10 reasons why I’m taking such a contrarian stance. (Hint: I saved the most important reasons for last). Words: 1420