Investing

Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical to the coming year. Below are our expectations for the U.S, Japanese and European stock markets, municipal bonds and gold.

The stock market is likely to experience a 4-year overall market loss of -25%, followed by positive 9% average annual total returns for the S&P 500 over the subsequent 6-year period, which would compound to produce a 10-year total return averaging 2.3%.

Royalty and streaming companies are not as safe as owning bullion intelligently stored, but they’re safer than the typical miner, with considerable upside margin over metals prices if things turn around from here.

Fed Chair Bernanke vehemently denies that the Fed “monetizes the debt,” but our research shows the Fed may be increasingly doing so. We explain why and what the implications may be for the dollar, gold and currencies.

Bubble predictions are headline-grabbing claims that are sure to attract reader/viewership and more than a few worried individuals who will be pushed to act but, like all forecasts, these bubble warnings should be taken with a grain of salt.

While the stock market is the only game in town - for now - stocks will not continue to out perform all other asset classes indefinitely. Eventually either bonds and gold will rally or stocks will crash very hard. It is one, the other, or even more likely a mixture of both.

Whenever the Fed has decided to reduce the extent of their purchases of "agency" debt products, the SP500 also declined in a dramatic way. [As such,]... it makes it extremely important to contemplate a “tapering” off in the rate of growth of Fed assets, or even an outright end to quantitative easing (QE). [Indeed, if you own stocks you may well want the Fed QEternity program to be just that - to eternity - in spite of the inflation that will surely follow.]

I would think that we are probably in the slow build-up to something interesting – a badly overpriced market and bubble conditions. My personal guess is that the U.S. market, especially the non-blue chips, will work its way higher, perhaps by 20% to 30% in the next year or, more likely, two years, with the rest of the world including emerging market equities covering even more ground in at least a partial catch-up.

TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) are telling us that inflation is expected to be low for as far as the eye can see, and the economy is expected to be weak for some time to come. This article provides an understanding of what TIPS are, how they work and what they are currently saying.

Below is a list of the 40 best performing S&P 1500 (current members) stocks since the bull market began on March 9th, 2009. If you like looking at big winners, this list is for you.