Investing

Even though the fact that we are in the midst of an absolutely insane financial bubble should be glaringly obvious to anyone with half a brain, the above referred to skeptics have convinced themselves that the current state of affairs can persist indefinitely. Sadly, it looks like what is about to hit us in 2015 is going to serve as a very rude wake up call for them and for the millions of other Americans that currently have their heads in the sand.

If we have an official Hindenburg Omen then a critical set of market conditions necessary for a stock market crash exists - and such occurred on Dec.2nd. We now have a much higher-than-random probability of a stock market crash, or at the very least a significant decline, starting sometime over the next four months.

Many investors are absolutely certain stocks and bonds are both going to get killed once the Fed finally does decide to raise rates. The historical record, however, doesn’t clearly back up that argument. Let me explain.

Sooner or later, the Federal Reserve will begin normalizing monetary policy, which means higher interest rates are coming, and this has investors rightfully worried because higher rates mean higher interest costs, which should be bad for profits and ultimately stocks. New research, however, suggests that a severe S&P reaction to such hikes is to be expected. Here's why.

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What would you say if I told you that the S&P 500 is going to 7,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 56,000, and the Nasdaq is going to 29,000 in the next 6 to 7 years. If you're waiting for the punch line, convinced that it's a joke well, it's no joke. Here's why.

it’s hard to see the current spike in equities as anything other than a blow-off move into a final top. It’s the only description for what the equity markets are doing. Let me explain further.

A lot of people are thinking that if policy can't stimulate, and demand is weakening on the margin then it's time to really start worrying but I'm not so sure it's time to run for cover. Here are 3 reasons why.

It is common for economists to offer a forecast for the stock market yet add a caveat to the effect that "If a war shock or terrorist attack occurs, then I would have to modify my outlook." As such, it would seem logical to assume that...they must have access to a study showing that such events affect the stock market, right? The answer is no, for the same reason that they do not check relationships between interest rates, oil prices or the trade balance and the stock market. The causality just seems too sensible to doubt.

The belief that earnings drive stock prices powers the bulk of the research on Wall Street but this glaring exception to the idea of a causal relationship between corporate earnings and stock prices challenges that theory. Let me explain.