Silver

Despite the precious metal's recent rally, and though silver may be somewhat more interesting than gold, I'm not convinced that this is a market that most investors want to chase. Here's why.

Ignore those pundits who are saying PMs are ready to take off. If you apply a little bit of common sense, and you look at these charts, can you draw any other conclusion(s)? Always remember: the markets never lie and here is what they are saying.

I believe the signals show that silver is either at, or very close to, a short-term top. Let me explain.

I have to admit, this is a very hard call to make and I could easily be wrong...but I am courageously sticking my neck out here and stating that we have most likely seen the lows for the broad metals & mining sector.

The pullback I’ve been warning you about in the U.S. equity markets is finally at hand but, once this pullback in the broad stock indices is over, the Dow Jones Industrial will lead the way higher yet again, and catapult to 31,000 over the next three years, with gold reaching $5,000, silver $125 and select individual stocks in the mining sector spinning off gains of 2,000%, 3,000% and even more. No, I'm not out of my mind. Quite to the contrary, I believe I am the one analyst who really understands the forces that are building to enable such to occur. Read on to learn about my enviable track record over the years and specifically why such gains will be realized over the next three years.

War cycles - cycles that govern human social interaction on a grand scale, cycles that can be quantified and used to forecast periods of peace and war, periods of civil unrest and international conflict - are now ramping up and converging in the worst possible combination of forces not seen since the late 1800s. In the process they are setting the stage for gold and silver to explode higher with gold going up to well over $5,000 an ounce a few years from now … silver to more than $125 an ounce … and mining shares, to the moon.

No one knows when gold and silver will rally and anyone who says otherwise has already been proven wrong. Despite a decent rally in both gold and silver over the past 7 trading days, a look at the charts shows that both remain in bear market conditions overall with no defined indication of ongoing strength.

We are of the opinion that the miners and explorers (and their indexes GDX and GDXJ} should be "swapped" for the precious metals - gold, silver, and their proxies (GLD and SLV). This way investors will maintain exposure to precious metals while reducing their exposure to the more volatile miners as some of the share dilution and recent investor exuberance play out - and at least hedge themselves if the price continues to rise.

Since the start of June, typically the worst month for precious metals when looking at seasonal charts, gold is up $75 or 6% and silver is up over $2 or 11% while many of the mining stocks that we track are up 30% or more in the past 3 weeks. Prices normally start to gain momentum after June and close the year very strongly so, while a pullback tomorrow would not be surprising, I believe the trend will be towards higher prices for the remainder of the year.

We live in an Alice In Wonderland, circa Orwell’s 1984 world. Everything is upside down, and that includes the price for gold and silver.