Silver

Given the fact that a) the historical movement of silver is 90 – 98% correlated withgold-silver gold, b) silver is currently greatly undervalued relative to its average long-term historical relationship with gold and c) many analysts predict a parabolic rise in the price of gold over the next 5 years it is realistic to expect that silver will also escalate dramatically in price - but by how much? This article applies the historical silver to gold ratios to come up with a range of prices based on specific price levels for gold being reached.

The internet is awash with analysts who believe that gold is going to $7,250+forecasting crystal ball and as low as $725 and that silver is going down to $12 or higher than $120. Such pundits (Roubini, Sinclair, Rickards, Willie and Edelson to name a few) grab a lot of attention in the media but are their prognostications worth paying attention to or are they just a lot of hot air?

The “year that was” brought mostly disappointment to precious metals bulls. Silver prices fell for the third straight year but when we finally see a major rotation out of stocks and into precious metals, silver has the potential to lead on the way up just as it has led on the way down. Let me explain why.

In spite of the positive change of behavior we have seen in gold and silver this past week with strong closes and increased volume - both attributes of buyers in more control than sellers - the weekly trend remains down. While we now see some steps in the right direction - a higher swing high - the market needs to prove itself and once that happens there will be ample opportunities to participate in the paper market.

We do not engage in any “predictions” of what the market will do as it is an exercise in ego and folly, and a waste of time. One need only go back to those who are making predictions for 2015 and read what was predicted for 2014 for proof. All we can say is that little can be added to what has already been said and that is that the trend remains down in gold, and until there is evidence of a strong reversal, this market continues to move along the Right Hand Side of a weak Trading Range.

We choose to focus on the charts because a reflection of developing market activity tells the most accurate and current story. It is not a promising one heading into 2015, however, but it is reality, and to expect anything else will lead to the same disappointments of 2013 and 2014. Forget the ego-driven predictions that have all proven wrong again and again, and deal with what is - and this article deals with what is by looking at the charts.

2014 is ending unexpectedly for PMs, considerably weaker than what most thought would be sharply higher prices. Based on what the charts are conveying, at least the initial part of 2015 will not fare much better. Supply and demand are not the driving factors - world financial dominance is [and most]... PM “experts” are not focusing on this aspect. [Let me do so and show you how such a factor is the price trend in gold and silver in the charts provided.]

This one seems like a no-brainer. The government or the central bank prints more bonds, notes and bills, and prices for things go up in response. Gold is real money, so it must fluctuate along with the inflation rate. It’s basic physics but it doesn’t happen that way. Let’s examine the history of inflation and the precious metals since the low of the Great Depression.

There is a potential for gold to be forming a bottom, based on the explanation provided on the chart below, but there are a few steps that must be met before anyone can say, “The bottom is in.” If these simple but important steps are not met, then there is the likelihood that yet another low can occur.

Every bottom undergoes a process of retesting but none is yet apparent in gold & silver. In the early part of 2014 we said that the second half could likely be more of the same as it was in 2013, and with just a few weeks away from the end of the year, prospects for 2015 can equally be brought into question regarding the price appreciation of gold and silver.