Gold

Gold should be soaring with red-hot inflation raging but, instead, it is breaking down but gold’s bizarre decoupling, driven by a parabolic USD surge fueling unsustainable heavy gold-futures selling, is an extreme anomaly that will prove short-lived.

After two years of declines, many investors sold their gold holdings and vowed never to invest in gold again. However, in the fall of 1976, gold began an ascent that saw it rise 750%, peaking at $850 a troy ounce three years and four months later. After a 3-year correction, the same opportunity to buy low exists today, just as it did in 1976.

The price of gold will never outrun the cumulative effects of inflation. This means that the higher price for gold is offset by the dollar’s actual loss in purchasing power.

According to the World Gold Council, the 10 largest gold mines in the world, by production, are located in 9 different countries and accounted for 12% of global gold production in 2021 as illustrated in the infographic from visualcapitalist.com below

Below are the stock performances of  the 4 producing companies YTD (as of May 27th), in descending order:

More and more analysts have been forecasting recently that gold will be going to $3,000-$5,000 per troy ounce (ozt.) over the next few years with a few even suggesting that we could see $10,000-$20,000/ozt.. Below is a list of the most recent analyst projections with hyperlinks to the source.

Silver and gold remain near all-time lows relative to the stock market despite gold and silver going up and stock indexes going down in Q1 (January through March). As such, it might be wise to allocate a portion of your portfolio to silver and gold now because, at the current ratios, your risk appears to be very low.

I derived my initial $5,000 target for gold by annualizing the nominal return for gold over the next three years but, given the differences between the 1970s and today, I wouldn’t be surprised if everything related to commodities performs even better this time around – albeit with sharper volatility – than in the earlier decade and that goes for my nominal 10-year target of $35,000 as well.

While the short-term remains uncertain for Gold, Silver, and the miners, especially given the record short position of the Bullion Banks, I believe they will all begin to soar to new record highs this year, perhaps sooner rather than later.

Ever wondered what happens to the gold market during a recession?  In this blog post, we are focusing on some of the commonly asked questions...about gold and recessions so you can understand more about this safe-haven investment in these economically turbulent times.