Economy

For the second time in the last fifteen or so odd years, Argentina has defaulted on its debt and...in the process the U.S. has inadvertently further accelerated the decline of the U.S. and the dollar's dominance. Let me explain why that is surely the case.

After a long period of very low interest rates following the global financial crisis the central banks of the U.S. and U.K. are planning to gradually tighten their easy monetary policies as their economies improve. When their benchmark interest rates go up, interest rates elsewhere will go up to so should we worry if and when global financial conditions tighten?

An Argentine friend queried me about Argentina's debt default yesterday asking me for my thoughts on the subject. Here is my reply in the form of an open letter to my friend and to the Argentina government should they be interested. They should.

During the credit crisis, one of the problems that occurred was that too many loans were being made to people that had no ability of paying their debt back. We see this trend in full stride once again in the auto industry. Subprime auto lending is back in a big way. Why is this happening? What are its repercussions? This article explains.

If you thought the Eurozone crisis was in the past, think again...It’s a near mathematical impossibility that its weakest members can grow their way out of their debt and if deflation takes hold—as it has already in Greece and Cyprus, and is close in Portugal, Spain, and Italy—all bets are off.

Despite a long list of major risks to the global economy, the trend for the stock market is still UP until proven otherwise. At this stage it is absolutely critical to be cautious and watch for signs of a market correction or peak, but it is our view that a recession won't take hold until the following 6 key indicators are triggered.

We look at this market and we see "too much." Too much divergence, too much complacency, too much embedded downside risk…the list goes on and covers many things. Let's make the rounds and see what we find [and what it means for the immediate well-being of the various stock markets.]

We're doomed! Even if the economy were growing at a faster pace, it wouldn't come close to offsetting the interest payments on our ever-expanding debt. As such, any sort of credit shock - either rising rates or a decline in the rate of debt expansion - will cause the system to implode. Let me explain why that is the case.

The next time someone says, "The US is the richest country on Earth" correct them and state that "The U.S. is the most bankrupt and indebted country in the history of the world" because that's reality. Let me explain.

Everyone knows that interest rates are going to rise in the future so the real question is not whether they will rise, but when and by how much. [This article analyzes when that will most likely be.]