Inflation/Deflation

Everyone knows that interest rates are going to rise in the future so the real question is not whether they will rise, but when and by how much. [This article analyzes when that will most likely be.]

The S&P 500 continues to hit new all time highs, but is your portfolio built on a house of cards? The politics to kick the proverbial can down the road may unleash dynamics that could be hazardous to your wealth. Here's why and how to protect your portfolio.

Might our Inflation-Deflation Watch be suggesting a breakout in asset price inflation is about to take place? Could it, in fact, be presaging the start of John William’s hyper inflationary depression in which prices rise exponentially even in light of massive unemployment and bankruptcies? This article analyzes the situation.

Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve are so behind the inflation curve, and many other market implication curves, that we probably are staring at a 35% chance of a Hyper-Inflationary period by the time the Federal Reserve realizes that "noise" is actually real inflation!

Below is some interesting research by Doug Peta of BCA Research regarding the Fed Funds Rate Cycle, and what that research - as well as our own in-house research - could mean for gold to help you understand the positivity we see for the precious metal looking towards 2015.

A change in monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policy is necessary to beat back the forces of recession and deflation. If the messages of falling gold prices and falling interest rates are not enough to gain the attention of policy makers, I suspect that the specter of future falling stock prices throughout the world will be. That is what is in store for us if the recessionary/deflationary bias in the world economy that gold and bonds are signaling, reasserts itself.

I believe that the inflation and price charts paint a clear picture, and that until inflation in the world picks up significantly, there will be no meaningful rallies in precious metals...[While] I am bullish on gold and silver long term, the short-term pressure is still evident and might take them lower in the next couple of months.

TIPS are telling us that the market is quite pessimistic about the prospects for real growth, but not concerned at all about the outlook for inflation.

At the end of last year virtually every every single economist expected interest rates to rise this year as the Fed tapered their purchases and the economy improved but, in fact, interest rates on the 10 year U.S. Treasury have been going down year to date (from 3% to 2.5% after rising from about 1.6% to 3% last year). The masses, going along with this crowd, got fooled but we have been calling for a decline in interest rates for some time now due to world-wide deflation and it couldn’t be clearer to us that this is the most likely scenario for the United States. Let us explain.

While the danger of loss of wealth due to the holding of bank notes is not imminent...it is better to make a move well in advance of a loss than to make the decision even one day too late. Here's what could happen as the Great Unravelling progresses and how to protect yourself from those eventualities.