Economic Overviews

Politicians foolishly believe they can bend the laws of nature. They are fools for trying. Sadly, the pain and suffering that will be incurred will be borne by the millions of citizens dependent on markets and the economy. The economy cannot recover without a complete cleansing of the excesses that have built up over the last half century plus. [This article spells out why that is the case.] Words: 710

[While] I am not a prepper in the traditional sense of stockpiling food, guns and the like, I have always considered myself a financial prepper...For anyone not familiar with how dicey matters are becoming, [however,] I suggest they read the 50 questions below. Words: 1323

[Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans] I would like to [take this opportunity to] inform you about the state of the union. Before I begin, however, I would ask that [the millions of Americans listening to me on T.V., on the internet and on the radio] take a moment to make sure the elderly, weak or infirm in your household are sitting down. In fact, just make sure everyone is sitting down and adequately restrained [because] what I'm going to tell you is the cold, hard, ugly truth... The state of your union is worse than it has been since 1861, and it's only going to get worse... much worse. Let me break down the situation for you in the simplest terms possible. Words: 1689

The United States is not going to become energy independent because of tight oil. Period. Reports to the contrary are an illusion of U.S. energy independence based on unrealistic assumptions and projections about the long-term potential of oil production from tight formations like the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. There are several compelling reasons for this [as outlined below]. Words: 575

We have been hearing a lot about escaping the fiscal cliff, but our problem isn’t solved. The fixes to date have been partial and temporary. There are many painful decisions ahead. Based on recent research and my analysis of the situation, civilization is in the early stage of the Crisis phase (state breakdown) and the U.S. will most likely enter a severe recession by the end of 2013. [Below is my rationale.] Words: 2979; Charts: 8

Risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk [and, as such, the] policies that appear to have been successful for the past four years may continue to appear successful for a year or two longer but that very success comes at a steep, and as yet unpaid, price in suppressed systemic risk, cost, and consequence. [This article identifies 8] key dynamics that will continue to play out over the next two to three years [and an] understanding of the eventual consequence of such influential trends - that risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk. Words: 1299

This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the 3 background links and watching the 8 videos. Words: 1279; Videos: 8; Charts: 2; Table: 1

Those dependent on the welfare state are unaware that their benefits are not sustainable. Most believe tomorrow will be like today and the checks will keep coming from Mother Government. Political power was gained based on promising these benefits. No politician will risk his position by trying to reduce them. No democratic society has ever rolled them back via peaceful political means. [At worst,] the economy and society could end up in ashes [and, at best,] the world is in for a long period of stagnation, retrogression and conflict. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 1115

Given the hectic lives we lead you may well have missed some excellent articles on the financial plight of the U.S. and recent developments in the economy. Not to worry. Below are introductory paragraphs and links to 5 of the “best-of-the-best” articles on the subject.

The Boston Consulting Group has issued a paper that recommends 10 steps that developed countries must take to end what they refer to as 'Ponzi finance' and to return to a sustainable growth path but I believe their recommendations to be but theoretical and impractical constructs. While I believe we face - and will experience - interesting, speculative, fragile, and very challenging and very likely life-changing times going forward, I believe that the only thing that will force developed country politicians to work for common purposes is a further global financial crisis. This article provides an overview and assessment of said paper and the rationale for my position. Words: 600