Economic Overviews

In a long-term strategy which employs both investments, there is a case for putting an over-weight on housing, and an under-weight on gold, given current relative price levels unless one is specifically investing for financial crisis.

With the Olympic Games underway, many eyes are on Rio...[and, as such,] investors...are...directing more attention to Brazil. While its stock market has had one of the world's best performances to date this year with the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index up more than 50%...[and] the MSCI Brazil Small Cap Index...[up] over 60%, the question now is, can the rally continue? My take is that it could potentially, but investors need to be willing to accept significant risk. [Let me explain.]

According to the New York Federal Reserve, 14% of the U.S. population lives in households that have “negative” wealth. In other words, these are households that have more debts piled up than assets, which puts their net worth in minus territory. In today’s chart, we compare the data on negative wealth households with the data on their positive counterparts. There are some obvious and stark contrasts.

Italy has overtaken Spain to become the weakest link among the Eurozone’s largest economies, with a banking sector desperately in need of a bailout and, if Italy’s banking crisis is a rerun of Spain’s, we can certainly expect some troubles in the Eurozone and, consequently, for the Euro.

Stocks don't have to immediately melt down today or next week, but it does mean that there’s a lot of risk percolating just below the surface – and El-Erian is worried that when it does bubble up, it could be more like a volcano than a hot spring.

What follows is a modern day parable which, if it wasn't so true, would actually be funny. A Japanese company (Toyota) and an American company (General Motors) decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River. Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race. Below are the results.

Does lousy growth + lousy construction spending = trouble for the U.S. economy? That’s what you have to wonder in light of the latest figures coming out of Washington.

Economic activity in Venezuela will fall 10% in 2016 – not 8% as previously stated - according to the IMF. General Mills, Bridgestone, Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark, Aeromexico, Lufthansa and LATAM Airlines have all suspended operations there in the past year. Upcoming debt payments are significant, and the country will most likely default as early as November of this year and no later than April of next year. International reserves are simply insufficient at a time when oil production declines and the economy contracts. Two questions in the air: Will China save Venezuela? Will it demand Maduro step down?

Investors globally have never faced risk of the magnitude that the we are now exposed to but, sadly, very few are aware of the unprecedented risks the world is facing. For the ones who understand risk and take the right decisions, it will “lead to fortune”. Only very few will choose that route, though. Instead most investors will continue to...

At the end of June, the BIS, or the central bank for central banks, produced its annual report, which is a must-read for investors interested in the global economy, macroeconomics, as well as gold, whose price is to a large extent shaped by macroeconomic factors. What does the report imply for the precious metals market?