Tuesday , 3 August 2021

Debt & Deficits

The Fiscal Cliff: Everything You Need To Know About It & Its Implications

The U.S. federal government is scheduled to implement a fiscal tightening of unprecedented severity (approx. 5% of GDP) at the start of 2013. The last time a tightening of such proportions occurred (3% of GDP in 1969) it presaged a recession. Thus, unless mitigated by an act of Congress, we expect the fiscal cliff would lead the U.S. into a recession in 2013. Below, in 26 charts, we examine all aspects of the impending crisis to gauge its potential impact on the credit markets and, by extension, our strategic investment recommendations.

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Fact #1: Revenue Does Not Cover Core US Programs

Face the Facts USA is delivering 100 provocative facts about big issues over the next 100 days leading up to the November elections to help Americans debunk myths, hold better conversations, get involved, and make choices as smarter citizens. Here is Fact #1 with supporting substantiation.

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The “LIE-BOR” $candal Explained

The LIBOR scandal is, in effect, "the world's biggest banks stealing money that would otherwise have gone toward textbooks and medicine and housing for ordinary Americans, and turning the cash into sports cars and bonuses for the already rich. It's the equivalent of robbing a charity or a church fund to pay for lap dances."

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The "LIE-BOR" $candal Explained

The LIBOR scandal is, in effect, "the world's biggest banks stealing money that would otherwise have gone toward textbooks and medicine and housing for ordinary Americans, and turning the cash into sports cars and bonuses for the already rich. It's the equivalent of robbing a charity or a church fund to pay for lap dances."

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Current Distortion of Interest Rates is Unsustainable & Will Have Dire Consequences

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

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