The U.S. stock market has been closing at one record high after another but, despite the seemingly unending investor optimism more than five years into the current bull market, some worrisome issues are continuing to build under the surface. Like all past bull markets, the latest episode will eventually come to an end and a new bear market will begin and it has the potential to be even worse than the two previous downturns since the start of the new millennium...
Read More »Today’s Shiller PE Suggests the Stock Market Is Overvalued By 60%! (+2K Views)
We estimate that a 'fair price' for the market is a Shiller PE of around 16. With the market at close to a Shiller PE of 26, the market is overvalued by about 60%. Now is not a historically good time to initiate a position in the S&P500.
Read More »Fearful In This Market? If Not, You Should Be!
As Warren Buffett is famous for saying "...be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and now is such a time. The crowd can be right for a long time, but they are rarely right at extremes and, while this time may be different, the probabilities suggest that at the very least it will be a more difficult environment for equities going forward.
Read More »Make No Mistake – A Major Stock Sell-off Looms! Here Are 4 Ominous Signs (+3K Views)
The 4 fundamentals and technicals discussed in this article accurately called stock market crashes in 2000 and 2007 and these same market metrics are again TODAY warning that a possible financial tsunami is brewing on the horizon. No one knows for certain WHEN the tsunami will hit Wall Street...but, without question, today’s stocks exhibit extremely exaggerated valuations, and extremes never last, so make no mistake, a major stock sell-off looms.
Read More »Noonan: How Long Will These Low Prices In Gold & Silver Continue? (+2K Views)
How long these low prices in gold and silver will continue is the ever pressing question on the minds of the gold and silver community and topic of so many articles written by the experts. While many have striven to provide an answer, and 2013 failed to match the “predictions” as to the “When?” issue, the best answer is: For as long as it takes. Here's why.
Read More »EXPECT & PLAN For A Major Stock Market Correction In the Coming Weeks/Months – Here’s Why & How (+2K Views)
The S&P 500 is now up over 180% since troughing in March 2009 and it has been almost 3 years since the stock market experienced a 10% correction. Historically, market corrections happen approximately every 2 years on average. [As such,] we think that this rally is getting very long in the tooth and we wouldn't be surprised if we have a healthy pullback in the coming weeks or months.
Read More »These Indicators Should Scare the Hell Out of Anyone With A Stock Portfolio (+2K Views)
...For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. Take a look at these examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio.
Read More »This Is One “Crazy, Nastyass” Stock Market! Here’s Why (+2K Views)
You can call this current stock market a blowoff or call it a Wile E. Coyote moment or call it a divergence or call it a disconnect or call it a lapse of judgement. You can call it whatever you want but I call it the “Honey Badger” market because this is one “crazy, nastyass” stock market - and I can’t believe I’m watching it happen all over again.
Read More »Bigger IS Better! What Does This Selective Advance Mean For the Stock Markets Going Forward?
The average U.S. stock is DOWN over 1% thus far in 2014. How can that be when we’re being told almost daily that the Dow and S&P 500 are hitting new all-time highs? The answer is likely to surprise you.
Read More »Believe It or Not: Both Bulls & Bears Playing In Current Market
The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis.
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