Gold has been moving within a mega upchannel since 1970 and still has a ways to go before reaching the top side of this mega uptrend. How high is anyone’s guess but were gold’s price rise to match the 2300% rise realized in the 1970s (and our research suggests we could see the start of the bubble phase by next year) we’d see a $6000 gold price, which would blow the gold price well above the mega upchannel. [Let us explain our conclusions with the use of 2 charts.] Words: 495
So say Mary Anne and Pamela Aden (www.adenforecast.com) in edited excerpts from the Commentators’ Corner of Kitco.com.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
The Adens go on to say, in part:
If gold stays above $1650…[then] the worst is behind us. Then $1700, $1800 and $1900 will be the next stepping stones in the renewed rise. Record high territory would confirm the making of a strong leg upward.
How high is anyone’s guess. It all depends on the explosive stage in the bull market. That phase is still to come and Chart 1 provides a good example of this.
As you can see, gold has been moving within a mega upchannel since 1970. The gold rise since 2001 still has a ways to go before reaching the top side of this mega uptrend.
Note on the top chart that gold moved into the upper side of the mega channel when it burst into record territory in September 2009. This was just six months after QE first started in March 2009.
When gold reached the $1900 record level [a year ago] September, the leading indicator (below) rose to the normal high area and it’s been declining since then, now approaching the uptrend and zero line.
This is the meat of the matter… the bottom line. The indicator is telling us that even though gold has risen in a clear consistent bull market for 12 years now, it has yet to reach bubble explosive levels.
Those moves would be more like what we saw in the 1970s. In those days, the full bull market rose 2300%. The current bull market since 2001 has only gained 660%… a far cry from the 1970s level.
There really is no fever like gold fever, and the fever hasn’t started yet. For example, for this bull market to gain 2300%, we’d see a $6,000 gold price, which would blow the gold price well above the mega upchannel.
Chart 2 below shows this comparison well. Today’s bull market has not yet begun to move in bubble explosive conditions but it’s getting closer though and the timing suggests we could see the start of the bubble phase by next year.
The Current Situation
Today, however, the mood is down. Many are discouraged by the decline of the last almost 15 months. It’s really not because of the…decline, it’s the length of time that has taken the enthusiasm out of the bull market.
Don’t be discouraged, though. If this sluggishness lasts [a few more] months it’s fine and new positions should be bought on weakness. Buy on weakness and hold… a good strategy.
*http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/20120723.html (To access the above article please copy the URL and paste it into your browser.)
Editor’s Note: The above posts may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
There will be a catalyst coming soon, probably some concerted action of money printing between the Fed, IMF and the ECB. That will happen as a result of the economies, worldwide, collapsing….The catalyst could come from anywhere but the money printing will be part of the next move in gold, that’s for certain….[and it] will lead to collapsing currencies, and investors buying gold at any price…I see gold reaching $3,500 to $5,000 in the next 12 to 18 months. Within 3 years, I see the gold price reaching at least $10,000.
The “Pareto principle” – it’s often referred to as the “80-20 rule” – states that 80% of the effects of something come from just 20% of the causes (that is that 80% of people control 20% of the wealth, that 80% of sales come from 20% of your customers, etc.) and a new report by Erste Group, the Austrian investment bank, says this principle can be applied to bull markets as well, including the current bull market in gold, and following this line of thinking, you get an $8,300 price target for gold by the spring of 2015. Words: 285
Lately analyst after analyst (161 at last count) has been climbing on board the golden wagon with prognostications as to what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 51 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 644
According to a recent Elliott Wave theory analysis gold is about to go parabolic reaching $3,495 in June 2013, $6,233 in April 2014, $10,899 in Sept. 2014, $18,712 in December 2014 and culminating in a parabolic peak price of $31,672 on January 16th, 2015! See the chart below. Words: 600
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The interim peaks in gold have been spaced 21 months apart over the past 6 years and have seen gains from 80.2% to 97.3%. As such, given the fact that the low of this last correction came in at $1,524 four months ago, we can expect gold to reach a new peak price of $2,750 to $3,000 in 17 months time (i.e. June/July 2013). [Let me explain in more detail.] Words: 976
The Fed is [going to] keep interest rates at zero until the end of 2014 [and that] is as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold. Inflation will be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years. In this environment gold and silver are the best investments around…We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market…This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012.
When considering that the conditions which propelled gold and silver to their 1980 highs are much worse today, I predict both metals will easily eclipse those previous highs. That means $2,500 gold and $150 silver at the very minimum, but more likely a parabolic ascent to $8,890 gold and $517 silver before all is said and done. Words: 1063
Our Fractal Model suggests the wave for Gold in US Dollars will sweep up into the $3500 to $3600 area into the mid-year time-frame. The leading edge of that time-frame begins in May and extends out for a few months. A potential for Gold to spike to a $3900 extended fib level exists. Like all parabolic moves in Gold, the late stages create the biggest price movements. Personally, I would be happy with a huge Gold run up to the $3200 level. Words: 1400