Thursday , 25 April 2024

Why Silver Could Drop Below $30/ozt.

Silver in Process of Reverting to Mean

A close look at where silver’s price is positioned at this stage of its developing long-term bubble – and using Bump-and-Run and Dead-Cat Bounce pattern analyses – suggests that silver is on its way to returning to its long-term mean. Words: 624

So says Nu Yu, Ph.D. in an article edited by Lorimer Wilson, editor of  (It’s all about Money!), to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.  Dr. Yu goes on to say:

Where is Silver Positioned in This Bubble?

It is interesting to compare the graph of “Main Stages in a Bubble” by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue (see below) with the silver chart that follows.  It shows that, after a brief “return to normal”, silver is now moving into the “fear” area of the Blow off Phase as it “returns to the mean.”


What is Bump-and-Run Pattern Saying about Short-term Price for Silver?

A  Bump-and-Run pattern typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply.  According to Thomas Bulkowski, this pattern consists of three main phases:  

  1. A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees.  Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.
  2. bump phase where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height.  Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.
  3. A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line and plunge lower in a downhill run.

As shown in the chart as of 6/28/2011 below, silver has been developing an intermediate-term Bump-and-Run pattern since last September.  It only recently broke support from the lead-in trend line and entered into the Run phase to plunge lower in a downhill run last week.



The next downside price target is projected at around $29/ozt. by the target line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line and is distant from the lead-in trend line with the same lead-in height.

What is Dead-Cat Bounce Pattern Saying about Short-term Price for Silver?

In addition to being in the Run phase of the Bump-and-Run pattern silver is in a Dead-Cat Bounce pattern. A Dead-Cat Bounce pattern has three major phases:

  1. An initial plunge phase during which a sharp decline of 25% to 45% is experienced over several days.
  2. A bounce phase during which there is a short-term recovery of between 15% and 35% in 1-5 weeks.
  3. A post-bounce decline phase during which there is a slow decline over a 2-10 week period to a low somewhere between 15% and 45% below the bounce top.

What’s Next for Silver?

Silver experienced:

  • the initial plunge phase in early May with a decline of 31% (i.e. from $48.42 to $33.53) and
  • the bounce phase at the end of May going up 15% (i.e. from $33.53 to $38.48).

The post-bounce decline phase has been ongoing since the early part of June and has the potential to drop 15% to 30%. A 25% drop would, incidentally, bring the price of silver down to $29/ozt. which would be in keeping with the abovementioned Run phase of the Bump and Run pattern.


The above chart patterns suggest that silver could drop below $30 per troy ounce soon on its return to its long term mean. It is the time to re-check fundamentals, reality, and risk for silver when Fed’s QE2 ends.

Related Articles of Interest:

  1. Is Now the Right Time – and Price – to Get Back Into Silver?
  2. Why Silver at $398.52 is a Realistic Parabolic Peak Price
  3. Martin Armstrong Asks: Will Silver Crash in 2011?
  4.  At What Price Should We Begin Buying Silver Again?
  5. “Three Peaks” Pattern Suggests Gold to Decline 17% into June! (previous post by Dr. Yu)

Editor’s Note:

  • The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
  • Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given as per paragraph 2 above.