Tag Archives: recession

Dr. Marc Faber, the author and publisher of the "Gloom Boom And Doom" report is one of the most well-read economists out there. I am of the opinion that his suggestions and investment advice are more realistic than any other economist or analyst we hear and read regularly. The summary of Dr. Faber's latest monthly report suggests that he views 2013 as a year of capital preservation. In other words, Dr. Faber is not very bullish on risky asset classes for 2013. This article discusses Dr. Faber's views and the reasons to remain cautious in 2013. Words: 1494; Charts: 3; Tables: 1

The warnings that the fiscal cliff will cause a recession are delivered as if the government can decide whether or not we have a recession. In fact, the government does not have that power, or we would never have recessions. At the most, the government can influence when, not if, we have a recession. We will most likely undergo a recession when we wean ourselves off the unsustainable deficit spending of the last four years. The choice is not recession or no recession. The choice is recession now or recession later. [Let me explain.] Words: 542

None of the three different statistical measures of financial stress released this week suggest any conditions in the financial markets that would indicate that the U.S. economy is in a recession already, and none of them are exhibiting any upward trends that would point to a pending recession. In fact, all three stress measures have been trending downward through 2012, indicating that there is less financial stress now than at the beginning of the year. [Take a look at what each has to say and judge for yourself.] Words: 571

The US Recession Probabilities Index is currently at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Interestingly, however, I don’t see recession signals in the internal indicators that I follow and which have been right for a long time now so this clearly puts that opinion in the “this time is different” category - or does it? Words: 255

QE3 looks like a desperate act to feed money to large banks, offload MBS toxic waste from their balance sheets, devalue the dollar against houses, commodities, and other currencies and create significant collateral damage in the form of consumer price inflation according to a number of respected economists and critical thinkers on the subject of QE3. [Let's take a look at what they have to say.] Words: 1661

This presentation* by David Rosenberg, comes courtesy of Joe Weisenthal (www.businessinsider.com). I’ve disagreed with Rosenberg on the recession call in the USA for a long time now, but we’re on the same page about a lot of the macro trends. Here are three pertinent trends that are worth highlighting from the presentation. Words: 555

The evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We cite the following as evidence. Words: 548

Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna tracks payroll tax receipts as a measure of real-time labor market health [see an earlier article on that chart and a host of others here] and the latest data for the current quarter show receipts growing 6% year-over-year. [It brings into question all those purveyors of doom who claim that a recesssion is just around the corner.]

The permabears are coming out the woodwork. Bad, scary articles and news seem to attract more attention and eyeballs than good news articles or those that offer a counterbalanced view. Whenever someone gets interviewed on US TV, it’s for someone proclaiming the end of the expansion – you never see them interviewing someone offering a counter view of a more positive nature. This article gives you a balanced, opposing view to the tiresome popular perma-bear consensus so that you can make your own balanced decision. [As for our own conclusion, we don't see imminent recession. Here's why.] Words: 1315

The permabears are coming out the woodwork. Bad, scary articles and news seem to attract more attention and eyeballs than good news articles or those that offer a counterbalanced view. Whenever someone gets interviewed on US TV, it’s for someone proclaiming the end of the expansion – you never see them interviewing someone offering a counter view of a more positive nature. This article gives you a balanced, opposing view to the tiresome popular perma-bear consensus so that you can make your own balanced decision. [As for our own conclusion, we don't see imminent recession. Here's why.] Words: 1315