Tag Archives: inflation

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

If inflation starts to head towards 5%, you can be sure it’s headed for 10% because they don’t have the ability to stop it now. The only antidote they have to the mess we are in, which is massively excessive debt reinforced by derivatives, is unlimited money printing. The idea that you can withdraw the punch bowl or sharply raise interest rates, it just doesn’t exist, unless you want to take a complete deflationary collapse.

Gold is not a solution to investing problems. It is an insurance policy against an inflationary explosion. The higher the probabilities of inflation, the more gold I hold. [Let me explain.] "Monty Perelin" - www.economicnoise.com

Is this the time to acquire gold? Or is this the time to run away from it? Either answer could be correct, depending upon what course government chooses. Government is at a decision point, one that will determine how our economic malaise next turns. [Let's review their choices.] Words: 922

The spectacular rally in the gold price over recent years [has] many observers asking if the precious metal has not moved ahead of its fundamentals...[and if it] has not entered speculative bubble territory. [To address that concern] I have calculated the purchasing-power-protection price of gold for the 43 years from 1970 to 2012 and compared it to the average market price for gold in every year [along with some background of events unfolding over each decade during that time period which should prove] useful as a framework for how to think about the [current] dollar-price of gold. [I think you will find it most enlightening. Take a look.] Words: 3973

Why are both debtors and creditors willing to build a status quo of massive unprecedented debt? [After all, the delusions of] creditors that debt is wealth and should never be liquidated, and of debtors that debt is an easy or free lunch have been smashed by the juggernaut of history many times before...[and] I think they will soon be smashed again. [Let me explain.] Words: 1150

There is some discussion in the blogosphere that the recent spike in gold reflects increased inflation expectations (possibly due to higher potential for Fed's QE3). That may be true, but that assumption is completely inconsistent with inflation expectations implied by TIPS.

Global investors are now being violently whipsawed by the decisions of central banks, as they switch between inflationary and deflationary policies. The choice governments now face is to allow a deflationary depression to finally purge the worldwide economy of its imbalances, or try to levitate real estate, equity and bond prices by printing massive quantities of their currencies.

When government is wounded, trapped and desperate, it lashes out like a wild animal. Survival in the political class is just as strong a drive as it is in the wilderness. I don’t know how government will lash out, but you are likely to see laws, restrictions and behavior you never imagined....Washington has demonstrated it will “print money” in whatever quantities necessary to stave off a sovereign bankruptcy and a Great Depression but this strategy cannot work forever because existing debt is already too high to be serviced. It is only a matter of time before the U.S. economy succumbs - unless it engineers a 'soft default' [which will save it's ass and get you shafted! Let me explain.] Words: 1394