Tag Archives: deflation

Precious metals - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and there respective mining shares - have failed to sustain any rebound despite tremendously supportive sentiment amid an extreme oversold condition. Nevertheless, we believe that the bottom is in and a rebound should begin very soon. The question though is, "What will the driving force be for a sustainable rebound which will evolve into a new cyclical bull market?" Below are several options to be considered and my assessment as to which it will be - and why.

On the surface, policy settings around the world look very inflationary with large fiscal deficits and aggressively easy monetary policies yet it is hard to see inflation gaining any traction [with] global activity so weak and the monetary transmission process so impaired in many countries. There is more of a deflationary than inflationary tone to the economic environment and it does not look as if this will change any time soon.

We believe that we are in the “competitive devaluation” stage presently [see graph below] as country after country is printing money in order to lower rates and doing whatever possible to devalue their currency - to have the fastest currency in the...race to the bottom - in order to export their goods and services. [The next stage will be protectionism and tariffs. This article gives an update on the race to debase.]

Higher (lower) inflation expectations have remained closely bound with higher (lower) stock prices [of late but] this odd connection won't last forever...[but] until that changes, it's best to go with the flow....[This article explains] the new abnormal. Words: 266

Whenever the BLS posts their monthly CPI there's always the same response from critics that the index is flawed. That's fine. I think a healthy dose of skepticism regarding government data is perfectly good. So let's take a look at some independent gauges to see where prices are.

Since 2012 is rapidly coming to a close, I’m fielding questions about what the future holds for 2013. My hope? That my answers will be both informative and instructive, and ultimately profitable, of course. Words: 1588; Charts: 2

Many investors are positioning their portfolios based upon their opinions as to whether or not we will encounter IN-flation or DE-flation. Well, what the MS Commodity Index (CRX) does over the next few weeks might tell us a good deal about how to best position one's portfolio. Take a look at the latest CRX graph below for an indication.

The arguments for gold to rise dramatically are well known and highly publicized. The arguments for gold to remain flat or to decline are minimally discussed and generally attacked vigorously when raised. [I do just that in this article and the conclusions will not be liked by the goldbugs.] Words: 285

The 21 month time frame for the next gold peak, the $30 trillion price tag for the debt, and the 64 month bull market fractal for money printing are all coming together squarely at the same date - June 2013. [That being determined, the best place to invest to take full advantage of the parabolic peak is in the stock of gold (and silver) royalty companies, or better yet, in the long term warrants of the two such companies that offer them. Let me explain my case.] Words: 1350

By threatening to drop money out of helicopters to fight deflation - to leave a paperweight on the "print" button if you will - Bernanke convinced the market and all of Wall Street that the Fed would always be there to step in and save the day. [In fact, however,] the whole thing was a bluff meant to prop up the markets - the famed Bernanke Put - and it was a lie. The markets will be realizing this in the coming months, if not sooner, and when they do, we'll see the REAL Collapse: the one to which 2008 was just a warm-up. [Let me explain.] Words: 444