Many investors are positioning their portfolios based upon their opinions as to whether or not we will encounter IN-flation or DE-flation. Well, what the MS Commodity Index (CRX) does over the next few weeks might tell us a good deal about how to best position one’s portfolio. Take a look at the latest CRX graph below for an indication.
So says Chris Kimble (http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com) in edited excerpts from his latest posting* on the subject.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
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The MS Commodity Index (CRX) reflects a series of lower highs over the past 18 months. The rally of late in the CRX took it back up to this falling resistance line.
This past week the CRX index broke below a 100-day old support line at (2).
What the CRX does over the next few weeks might tell us a good deal towards which theme has their portfolios better positioned.
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Editor’s Note: The above post may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
Global investors are now being violently whipsawed by the decisions of central banks, as they switch between inflationary and deflationary policies. The choice governments now face is to allow a deflationary depression to finally purge the worldwide economy of its imbalances, or try to levitate real estate, equity and bond prices by printing massive quantities of their currencies.
James Turk believes hyperinflation is ahead. Bob Prechter believes massive deflation is coming. An interesting discussion between the two takes place in this audio. Ultimately, both lead to Depression. Only the route taken differs, but that is important.
All in all, deflation should be one of the most serious words in a commodity investor’s vocabulary and is something to always keep an eye on. While its presence may seem removed from our economy, the possibility always remains and preparation will be key to survive a deflationary environment.
Many investors are treating inflation as a certainty because the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to unheard of levels through its quantitative easing strategy. Some have even gone so far as to say that this program will utterly destroy the U.S. currency. To demystify this conclusion, I’m going to explain quantitative easing and why the Fed is using this monetary strategy. Afterward, I’ll explain why gold is still positioned to rise even if inflation continues to be low. Words: 786
You don’t need [actual] deflation—a reduction in the outstanding supply of money—to have markets react to a decrease in the rate of money supply growth…, anticipate the eventual deflation [and begin to price it into the market. Remember 2008?] Oil prices fell from $147 in July of 2008 to $33 per barrel by early 2009. The S&P 500 went into free-fall starting in September of 2008 and bottomed out in March of 2009—falling almost 50% in six months. This is what has already happened to the gold mining sector but, remember, central banks may be on a counterfeiting holiday right now but they have a history of taking very short vacations
With investors concerned about inflation it begs the following questions: “What is the best way to attempt to inflation-proof ones’ portfolios? Buy TIPS? Short Treasury bonds? Stocks? Real Estate? Commodities? Gold? Currencies?…[In this article we review each option and come to a conclusion as to how best to hedge the risk of inflation.] Words: 1672