There is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs…The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after the price of silver has surpassed the $50/ozt. level. [Let me explain.] Words: 685
So says Hubert Moolman (www.hubertmoolman.wordpress.com) in edited excerpts from his original article.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
There are some similarities in the current silver market compared with the 1970s….[as can be seen below when] the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 [is compared] to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com). I [have chosen] those timeframes because price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around those periods. I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.
Note [above] how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.[Also] note [above] that in the 70s and in the current chart, price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line…Currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level. The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50).
The flag pattern forming currently is significantly bigger (in price movement) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.
The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.
Below is a graphic that compares the gold chart [top] from 2007 to today, to the silver chart [bottom] from 2008 to 2010 in which I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles out of which price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.
The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months) [while] the consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles). Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point 0 on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.
Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold’s movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silver bugs.
The kind of movement we’ve seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver’s big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).
The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level.
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1. Egon von Greyerz: Gold & Silver to Accelerate Higher
With gold closing above the critical $1,650 level and silver above $30, my view is that we have bottomed and we are on the way to much higher levels. We are seeing a bit of sideways action here, but it’s sideways to upward and I think that will continue. I like the pace, the fact that it’s not going up too fast, but I think we will see an acceleration to the upside in short order. Words: 924
2. Goldrunner: Gold, Silver and HUI Index to Bounce Back to Major Highs by May 2012
With the present major correction in gold, silver and the mining sector it is important to look at the big picture and see what the charts are saying from a technical fractal relationship with what happened back in 1979 when the last truely major bull run occurred. To date the situation is, frankly, no different than it was back then unfolding just as it should. As a result we can expect MAJOR upward price action in physical gold and silver and in their mining (producers, developers, explorers and royalty streamers alike) in the next few months on their way to their respective parabolic peaks in the years ahead. Read on. Words: 1604
3. SILVER is Ready for Take Off! These 7 Charts Show Why
After a very turbulent year, silver now looks set to take off again. The best entry point of the last 5 years was in 2008… and currently we are in a similar situation, which means that silver…is ready for take-off. In this article I will tell you why I think [that is the case illustrating my views with the use of 7 charts. Words: 1200
4. The Dollar is Toast! The Future is Silver
Psychologists tell us that there are five stages of grief over loss of whatever kind, usually death, or breaking up with a loved one, which are: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. I’ve applied these to the loss of the dollar, as I see most people today are still stuck in denial, and here’s how to deal with that. Words: 1100
5. Silver: The Party Isn’t Over Yet
Investing is often a study of inconsistencies and contradictions. If it weren’t, the markets would be a simple game and there would no back and forth between buyers and sellers, greed and fear and technical analysts, fundamentalists and momentum players. Our experience with silver since the end of last year illustrates this [but] we [still] think it makes sense to get exposure to the metal. [Let us explain.] Words: 820