Sunday , 21 July 2024

Now You, Too, Can Predict When China Will Overtake America Using This Cool Interactive Tool

America’s GDP is still roughly twice as big as China’s (using market exchange rates). To predict when the gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive chart below with the latest GDP numbers. This  allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. [Plugging in our assumptive] numbers China will overtake America in 2018. [Share your prediction in the “Comments” section at the bottom of the page.]

So say edited excerpts from an article written by The Economist Online.

This article is presented compliments of (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

The article is quoted in its entirety below:

“Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a  year in China and 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3% and 2.2%  respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan  has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the  next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5%  in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan  appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers [go here to use the interactive chart] and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an  average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it  would not become number one until 2021. What do you think? [Share your prediction in the “Comments” section at the bottom of the page.]

A broader analysis by The Economist finds that China  has already overtaken America on well over half of 21 different  indicators, including manufacturing output, exports and fixed  investment. The chart below predicts when China will surpass America on  the rest. By 2014, for example, it could be the world’s biggest importer  and have the largest retail sales. America still tops a few league tables by a wider margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s, and it spends five times as much on defence. Even  though China’s defence budget is growing faster, on recent growth rates America’s will remain larger until 2025.”


Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

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