Friday , 26 July 2024

Asset Allocation

“Unlikely” Doesn’t Mean “Never”: “Rare” Events Happen Surprisingly Frequently in the Markets (+4K Views)

By definition, rare events should seldom occur and applying that understanding to financial markets assumes that all market events follow a normal distribution or, in layman's terms, a bell-shaped curve. More specifically, the statistics say that 99.7% of all daily movements should fall within three standard deviations of the mean, no more. Well, guess what? New research suggests that they clearly don't follow such a pattern - that "unlikely" doesn't mean "never". [Let me expand on that.] Words: 1079; Charts: 1

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The Growth In Money Supply Says Gold Is Going To Go Ballistic

The level of M2 - the total amount of money in circulation in the country - is not only helpful in deciphering the fair value for gold but also where the metal is headed by forecasting how the money stock will trend and...while gold doesn't move in lockstep with M2, it does follow M2 higher over time.

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Average Annual Returns During 4-Yr. Presidential Cycle

…Politicians try to juice up the economy during election years to improve their chances of re-election…but after the election is over and the next election is far away, they reverse the course and restrict the fiscal and monetary stimuli. Thus, major elections produce economic booms and busts, as politicians try to create an artificial boom before every election and take advantage …

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Bull Run In Silver Could Take It Above $160/ozt – Here’s Why (+6K Views)

The silver market is only 1/10th the size of the gold market so it’s prone to crisis-driven upside explosions as money floods into it during periods of high inflation and, today, the stage is set for an explosion in inflation. I expect it to kick off a crisis-driven mania into silver like what happened in 1980 and, adjusted for today’s prices, that means silver soaring above $160 a [troy] ounce.

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