Inflation/Deflation

The current move up over the past 4 years is being driven by the Fed's loose monetary policies (just as other global markets have been driven by their Central Banks). Most bulls believe the loose polices will stimulate enough consumer demand to lead to a significant U.S. economic recovery. We, however, continue to believe the debt - laden consumer, along with the still other unresolved debt burdens, will be a major drag on the U.S. economy, (we are convinced that the market will turn down and make a triple top at levels below the peaks made in 2000 and 2007 while we resume the secular bear market that started in 2000) and that will have negative affects on the global economy.

We know that state-run central banks ALWAYS try to inflate their way out of debt [because, quite] simply, it's the easiest way to make debt go away....Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner might call their inflationary measures by a different name - like quantitative easing - but the effect is the same [and,] make no mistake [about it,] these policies will destroy lives [on one hand, and make those in the know a small fortune on the other. This article explains the options].

Whenever the BLS posts their monthly CPI there's always the same response from critics that the index is flawed. That's fine. I think a healthy dose of skepticism regarding government data is perfectly good. So let's take a look at some independent gauges to see where prices are.

A look at the trend in prices of the Big Mac clearly shows that investors are being penalized with higher inflation, lower income from bonds and certificates of deposit and being led to believe that the economy is growing better than it really is. [Let me explain.] Words: 1012; Charts: 2

The six charts I provide in this article illustrate why the hyperinflationary pressure in America is growing. This is not necessarily a forecast for hyperinflation - this is simply a demonstration that some of the precursors to a hyperinflationary cliff are building. (Words: 1001; Charts: 7)

[The just announced] QE4 will see the Fed buying $85B per month in U.S. Tbonds and Fanny/Freddie bonds with newly printed dollars - essentially debasing the dollar by 1 $trillion per year. The cold reality, however, is that each time QE is launched we get less wealth-effect bang for the buck and more inflation and, IMO, by the time it's switched off in mid-2014, we will have a real-world inflation rate of 5%+. (Words: 863; Charts: 2)

The public's estimates and predictions of inflation are significantly, and systematically, related to the demographic characteristics of the respondents...[and] even after we hold constant income, age, education, race, and marital status...women in our survey tended to think inflation was 1.9 percentage points higher than men. [There are more interesting findings, so read on.] Words: 987

Many investors are positioning their portfolios based upon their opinions as to whether or not we will encounter IN-flation or DE-flation. Well, what the MS Commodity Index (CRX) does over the next few weeks might tell us a good deal about how to best position one's portfolio. Take a look at the latest CRX graph below for an indication.

All in all, deflation should be one of the most serious words in a commodity investor's vocabulary and is something to always keep an eye on. While its presence may seem removed from our economy, the possibility always remains and preparation will be key to survive a deflationary environment.

QE3 looks like a desperate act to feed money to large banks, offload MBS toxic waste from their balance sheets, devalue the dollar against houses, commodities, and other currencies and create significant collateral damage in the form of consumer price inflation according to a number of respected economists and critical thinkers on the subject of QE3. [Let's take a look at what they have to say.] Words: 1661