Asset Allocation

Silver has had three bad years while the S&P has had 5 good years. It is time for both markets to reverse. Here’s why.

It’s hard to predict what will trigger the next collapse of stocks, but gold is already on the road to new highs with Janet Yellen gearing up to unleash a new torrent of freshly printed dollars onto global markets. I’d recommend you start building your ark well in advance.

What would the optimal portfolio allocation in gold have been according to Modern Portfolio Theory over several different periods of time? This article has a look at how an investor could have combined gold and equities to enhance risk-adjusted returns.

History is testament that there exists monumental probability (76% to 100%) that 2014-2016 will witness impressive gains for Gold, Silver and Precious Metal Equities…across the board. Below are charts of 8 different forms of precious metals assets that show that Golden Crosses are a fait accompli or are about to experience imminent completion thus heralding an immediate new Bull Market and that the forth-coming secular bull markets in all forms of precious metals may well far surpass the forecasts herein stated. The focus of the following analysis is to prove the predictable accuracy and timing of the The Golden Cross.

Following the 2007-09 financial crisis, many investors decided they needed insurance on their portfolio to protect against the possibility of another “black swan” event and poured money into a host of new funds that were supposed to help if there was another downturn — long/short funds, tail risk strategies, absolute return funds, option hedging strategies, tactical asset allocation funds and the like - but they missed the idea completely. They were trying to plan ahead for uncertain events that could surprise everyone. Of course this is impossible, because you can’t hedge out the risks of unknown events - they’re unknown after all. So how should an investor protect oneself from another such occurrence? The answer is below.

There is little the United States can do militarily to change the outcome in Ukraine...but this does not mean the United States is helpless. No sooner had the Russian invasion become clear than the White House announced the possibility of economic sanctions against Russia....By implementing such sanctions, the United States has moved in the direction of a new kind of warfare — not kinetic war involving ships, planes and missiles — but financial war involving cash, stocks, bonds and derivatives. The policy question, and an important question for investors, is how far can this type of financial warfare go and how effective can it be? What will the impact of financial war be on markets in general and investors in particular?

We fail to pay attention to the warnings signs as long as we see no immediate danger and keep our foot pressed to the accelerator believing that since it hasn’t happened yet, it won’t. This time is only “different” from the perspective of the “why” and “when” the next major event occurs. Below are analyses and exhibits to support that contention.

Now marketing himself as a “rogue economist,” Harry Dent is forecasting “gold down to $750 an ounce, housing down 35%, oil down to $10 a barrel, the Dow down to 6,000, [and] a war between inflation and deflation” this year. His swami-like predictions in the past have been truly dreadful but, unlike most of his ilk, Dent has perhaps offered something actionable, if not in the way he intended. Let me explain.

Over the next couple of months everything should generally rise together but once the dollar puts in an intermediate bottom sometime in March or April, commodities and gold will move down into an intermediate correction as the stock market completes its final blow off top. After the stock market parabola collapses later this summer it will be time to put the pedal to the metal in the commodity markets, and especially the precious metal markets as the Great Inflation begins in earnest.

If you have 401k assets, are a financial professional or individual investors looking to construct portfolios and not move monies very often, and looking to beat inflation over an extended period of time, the chart below is well worth being aware of.