Gold, Silver & Other Commodities

There are significant challenges to gold prices increasing in 2013. In fact, I believe that gold prices should move down in 2013 because of five strong headwinds, elaborated in this article. Words: 464

As we begin 2013, there has been an important shift in regards to precious metals...the decoupling that has taken place between the equity market and the precious metals complex...[which] began nearly 17 months ago (decouplings of three or six months are not significant). Since the Euro crisis in summer 2011, the equity market has rallied nearly 30% and reached a five-year high, but gold stocks are down by more than 30%...[and, as such,] precious metals cannot begin an impulsive sustained bull move if the equity market continues to move higher. The equity market has to struggle with resistance and begin a mild cyclical bear move. While over the near-term precious metals can confirm a higher low, the 2013 success of the sector depends on the struggles of conventional stocks. [This article explains why that is the case and uses several charts to illustrate the point.] Words: 899

President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that's good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there's no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years - statistical anomaly or otherwise - it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1

The threats of global recession, insurmountable debt, terrible government policy, central bank support, and many other very persuasive arguments present gold as a very appealing investment or safe haven but all of this is an illusion. Gold was a sensible investment in the early part of the bull market (1999-07), but has now become a false sense of security for many investors who will soon learn the hard way. Not only are the fundamentals already priced in, the technicals severely weakened, and the extremes in gold optimism easily apparent, but the bad news for gold could soon get much worse. The next weeks or few months will hopefully give us a lot more clarity. Words: 1170

Been busy? Not to worry. Here are introductory paragraphs and links to 13 of the “best of the best”articles on gold and silver that you might have missed reading. Each article has been edited for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure you a fast and easy read. Read just one or read them all. Enjoy!

A month ago it looked like the U.S. Dollar Index would crash through its 1-year support line. Instead, the index bounced off it like an Indian rubber ball (remember?) and, in the process, hurt the price of gold and silver. That seems to have reversed in the past few days. Take a look at the charts. Words: 431; Charts: 2

Seeing the S&P 500 outperform gold and seeing gold stocks get decimated...has been enough to create suicidal sentiment...in the precious metals (PM) sector...but, as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market...[are expressed,] the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower. The bigger picture hasn't changed and isn't going to for some time [so] keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don't let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what STILL promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 and might even go below 1 this cycle. [Let me explain.] Words: 873

Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive. That is not secret, but it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time.

There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. Once $1800 is taken out on the upside the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. [Below is my analysis and some charts on the situation.] Words: 434; Charts: 2

The situation in the gold market today is different than the one in 1980 in a few important areas. Even if past patterns don't give you any certainty, though, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty. Let us analyze that in more detail. Words: 1260; Charts: 2