Tuesday , 25 June 2024

David Morgan: Gold to Go Up 10-20% in 2013; Silver By a Good 30%

This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

The article goes on to say, in part:

This article presents the highlights of a guest presentation Morgan made at a webinar organized by GoldCore with regard to the silver price outlook for 2013.

Silver’s bigger picture

David Morgan…kicked off his presentation with two long term silver price charts, both adjusted for inflation. The first of the two charts is based on the CPI as measured by the US government. The chart shows the peak price of silver in 1980 (adjusted for today’s inflation) which is $125. The upside potential for silver is clear. (Chart courtesy ShareLynx.com.)

Now it is often mentioned that silver touched $50 in 2011, speculating that it has passed its peak in the current bull market. The…[fact] of the…[matter] is that it was a one day event, and it happened only in the futures market. In the physical market for instance, there was a “bid back” situation, which means the buy / sell spread was very large (dealers were buying physical silver at $35 an ounce and selling at $50). Moreover, the fact that it took only one day, “does not make the market”.

(click to enlarge)

When looking at the same chart taking the SGS inflation into account, we see a totally different picture. The SGS inflation uses the same calculation methodology as in 1980 and is calculated by Shadowstats.com. Obviously the government has changed their calculation methodology over the years. The SGS inflation adjusted chart makes the picture even more extreme. David Morgan explains that a move from today’s $33 to $100 would be a threefold move up, it is still significantly low compared to the historic peak. (Chart courtesy ShareLynx.com.)

(click to enlarge)

Still, these prices are rather irrelevant as the price of precious metals reflects the value of currencies. In the extreme scenario where an infinite amount of money would be printed, the price of the metals could go to infinity (obviously a theoretical example). Instead, it makes more sense to look at the long term trend which is clearly up. David Morgan used several charts in that respect:

The long term silver price in all major currencies is shown in the following graph (courtesy of Silverprice.org). Mark O’Byrne shows the idea that silver is a store of wealth based on two examples:

  1. In 2008, while the financial crisis was raging, Sterling was under bigger pressure than the other currencies. You see on the graph that silver lost value in all currencies, except in Sterling.
  2. Likewise in 2011, the Indian Rupee came under high pressure. While the silver price had declined against all currencies, it did not in terms of Indian Rupees.

(click to enlarge)

Outlook for the price of silver in 2013

Paper currencies are losing value over time, and today even more significantly than ever before. [Read: This Chart Proves That Your Currency Is Being Debauched At An Accelerating (Parabolic) Rate! Got Gold?] There is a probability that cash will become trash, which is against the general belief that cash is king (at least, in the current environment).

What is the bottom line for the outlook of the silver price in 2013?

David Morgan expects 2013 to be a bullish year, in which a new leg up will start. It will probably not go into an acceleration phase (like in the first part of 2011). It is reasonable to expect a rise of 10 to 20% in gold, and [a] good 30% in silver.

Questions & Answers

During the Q&A session, some interesting points were made related to silver’s outlook in 2013.

1. When will silver cross $50?

  • Answer from David Morgan: It is likely to happen in 2013. The next leg up is starting right now, although we probably will not see a substantial acceleration in the leg up. Obviously, as soon as $50 is crossed an acceleration can be expected. It remains difficult to forecast how fast the acceleration will be.

2. How much is silver currently undervalued (compared to the money supply)?

  • Answer from David Morgan: One of the realistic approaches would value [silver at] $700 an ounce. Source: a recent video from professor Ryan Jordan.

3. I keep my silver in the U.S.. Should I also store it outside the U.S.?

  • Answer from Mark O’Byrne: We advise clients not to store bullion in the U.S.. In fact, Switzerland remains the safest place in the world to store bullion.

Sign up HERE to receive munKNEE.com’s unique newsletter, Your Daily Intelligence Report

  1. FREE
  2. The “best of the best” financial, economic and investment articles to be found on the internet
  3. An “edited excerpts” format to provide brevity & clarity to ensure a fast & easy read
  4. Don’t waste time searching for articles worth reading. We do it for you!
  5. Sign up HERE and begin receiving your newsletter starting tomorrow
  6. You can also follow the “munKNEE” on Facebook


Related Articles:

1. Buy & Hold Commodity Assets (Particularly Gold & Silver) Starting Today: BIG Profits are Coming – Here’s Why


Savers will not stand idly by and watch their savings get wiped out by taxes and inflation….[which] is good news for investors who buy and hold commodity assets today – and it’s also a stark reminder to not be fooled by the short-term head fakes that might make it look like the commodity bull is over. Stay the course – the biggest profits are yet to come. [Here’s why.] Words: 405

2. LAST CHANCE to Buy Gold/Silver/PM Stocks At Low Prices – BIG Moves Coming In December, January & February

gold and currencies

What is developing in the markets is not the beginning of  another leg down in gold, but a second chance to get positioned for what should be a  very profitable intermediate degree rally over the next 2-3 months. [Let me explain further with a number of charts to support my position.] Words: 460

3. Nick Barisheff: $10,000 Gold is Coming! Here’s Why


This is not a typical bull market. Gold is not rising in value, but instead, currencies are losing purchasing power against gold and, therefore, gold can rise as high as currencies can fall. Since currencies are falling because of increasing debt, gold can rise as high as government debt can grow. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if its correlation with the price of gold remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce. However, if history is any example, it’s a safe bet that government expenditure estimates will be greatly exceeded, and [this] rising debt will cause the price of gold to rise to $10,000…over the next five years. (Let me explain further.] Words: 1767

4. Gold: What Does a “Troy” Ounce or “18/24 Karat” Gold Really Mean?


You have no doubt read countless articles on the price of gold costing “x dollars per ounce” and possibly own a gold ring or some other piece of  gold jewellery but do you really understand exactly what you are buying? What’s the difference between 1 troy ounce of gold and 1 (regular) ounce? What’s the difference between 18 and 10 karat gold? Let me explain. Words: 637

5. Which Gold and Silver Assets (and How Much) Should You Own?

It is no longer a matter of whether or not you should buy gold and/or silver but, rather, which type of investment(s) and how much. You don’t need a lot but you do need some – and here’s a primer on just what type of investment vehicles are available and recommendations on just how much you should buy. Words: 1086

6. It is Imperative to Invest in Physical Gold and/or Silver NOW – Here’s Why


Asset allocation is one of the most crucial aspects of building a diversified and sustainable portfolio that not only preserves and grows wealth, but also weathers the twists and turns that ever-changing market conditions can throw at it. However, while the average [financial] advisor or investor spends a great deal of time carefully analyzing and picking the right stocks or sectors, the basic and primary task of asset allocation is often overlooked. [According to research by both Wainwright Economics and Ibbotson Associates and the current Dow:gold ratio, allocating a portion of one’s portfolio to gold and/or silver and/or platinum is imperative to protect and grow one’s financial assets. Let me explain.] Words: 1060

7. U.S. Dollar Index to Plunge; Gold & Silver to Soar! Here’s Why


With President Obama being re-elected we can expect four more years of a Washington-centric controlled economy with a rolling program of borrow, print, spend and pretend; similar to the last four years….[What affect will such fiscal irresponsibility have on the U.S. dollar, gold and silver? Read on!] Words: 717

8. Why You Should Now Invest in Silver vs. Gold


The price of silver is going to go much, much higher – much higher – over the next decade [relative to gold according to Jim Rogers and I concur. Below are 5 solid reasons why I believe that is the case.] Words: 767

9. Gold:Silver Ratio Suggests MUCH Higher Price of Silver in Next Few Years

Silver Bars

The majority of analysts are now of the opinion that gold will reach a parabolic peak price somewhere in excess of $5,000 per troy ounce in the next few years. Given the fact that the historical movement of silver is 90 – 95% correlated with that of gold suggests that a much higher price for silver can also be anticipated. Couple that with the fact that silver is currently greatly undervalued relative to its average long-term historical relationship with gold, silver could escalate dramatically in price over the next few years. How much? This article takes a look at historical gold:silver ratios and what attaining certain relationships would mean for the price of silver should specific price levels for gold be realized. Words: 691

10. Goldrunner: Silver to Rocket to $60 – $68 and Then Much Higher

Silver Bars

Personally, based on the fundamentals at hand and the fact that Gold doubled its log channel around this point in the cycle; I expect Silver to bust up out of its log channel in 2013.  Initially, I look for Silver to reach the $60 to $68 level, first and hold open the possibility for Silver to do much more on the upside as the 70’s Silver Chart reflects.

11.  Alf Field Sees Silver Reaching $158.34 Based on His $4,500 Gold Projection!

Silver Bars

This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct [see my article entitled “Alf Field: Correction in Gold is OVER and On Way to $4,500+!” and I have settled on] a target price of $158.34 for silver. [Let me explain how I came to that specific price.]

12. This Chart Proves That Your Currency Is Being Debauched At An Accelerating (Parabolic) Rate! Got Gold?

[According to the chart in this article,] all currencies are being debauched. The price of gold in each currency approximates a parabola, meaning the use of printing presses is accelerating. Each unit of currency is losing purchasing power at an increasing rate. The trend points to a worldwide currency collapse unless the creation of money stops. [Take a look!]. Words: 282

13. Owning Gold Bullion Can Help Boost Your Global Net Worth! Here’s Why


Today’s  world is as uncertain as any we’ve seen in some time. Sovereign-debt crises threaten  major economies in Europe and Japan and the fiscal state of the United States  is the worst in non-wartime history! It’s  no surprise, then, that investors are becoming increasingly attracted to the  safety, anonymity and purchasing-power preservation that comes with bullion  ownership. That being said, one of the most-often-overlooked benefits of bullion is its ability to help you  increase your wealth across currencies, so today I’ll show you how owning  physical metals — and the most-precious of them all, gold in particular — can help you to boost your global net worth! Words: 896