Gold

The trend continues down in gold & silver irrespective of all the positive news, charts, graphs, and other news writers specializing PMs present. The major players may be setting up one more trap to take the price of silver down to levels most do not expect. After all, how many expected crude oil to go from $105 to $45?

If you think precious metals are expensive you are sorely mistaken. They are, in fact, dirt cheap (relatively speaking, I must admit!) when compared with the equivalent cost of the gemstones identified below. Take a look.

When will gold and silver rally? We would say the best answer comes from a reading of the charts. Has a bottom been confirmed? Not by our standard of confirmation. Let me explain.

An inordinate build-up of short positions in silver by the "smart money” or “insiders” implied lower gold and silver prices and the charts shown here confirmed that.

Gold is up significantly in 4 of the 7 top currencies (the euro, British pound, Australian and Canadian dollars), up respectably in 2 others (U.S. dollar and Japanese yen) and down slightly in the last (Swiss franc) demonstrating amply the value of gold as a hedge, not just against inflation, but against sudden currency devaluation and systemic financial and economic risks as well.

In spite of the fact that gold has rallied from a price of $1,140 last November, my long-term empirical model suggests it is still undervalued and has the potential to rally to $2,000 by late 2015 or 2016 and quite possibly to between $5,000 and $10,000 in six years time. This article explains why that is the case.

Over the years only 42 pundits have been bold enough to provide a specific date as to when their forecast for the future price of gold (and silver, in some cases) would be realized. This article provides that information along with the criteria & rationale for their determinations.

The internet is awash with analysts who believe that gold is going to $7,250+forecasting crystal ball and as low as $725 and that silver is going down to $12 or higher than $120. Such pundits (Roubini, Sinclair, Rickards, Willie and Edelson to name a few) grab a lot of attention in the media but are their prognostications worth paying attention to or are they just a lot of hot air?

The “year that was” brought mostly disappointment to precious metals bulls. Silver prices fell for the third straight year but when we finally see a major rotation out of stocks and into precious metals, silver has the potential to lead on the way up just as it has led on the way down. Let me explain why.

In spite of the positive change of behavior we have seen in gold and silver this past week with strong closes and increased volume - both attributes of buyers in more control than sellers - the weekly trend remains down. While we now see some steps in the right direction - a higher swing high - the market needs to prove itself and once that happens there will be ample opportunities to participate in the paper market.