Inflation/Deflation

Don’t listen to what the official numbers say. Inflation is a big problem already for the U.S. economy - and in an inflationary environment, gold bullion goes up and stock prices go down, because materials cost more and consumers spend less. I’d adjust my portfolio accordingly for the rapid inflation that awaits us.

The March year-over-year inflation rate was 1.51%, which is well below the 3.88% average since the end of the Second World War and 37% below its 10-year moving average.

At the beginning of a hyperinflationary cycle, the stock market virtually always makes substantial gains which is just reflecting the sheer weight of printed money...After the initial enthusiasm the stock market loses its lustre and falls in tandem with the economy into a deflationary depression. The U.S. is now slowly entering such a hyperinflationary phase. Here's what that means for the future price of gold.

It is my contention that the move in precious metals...[from] late 2008 through 2011 was largely a result of the expansion in central bank balance sheets and the perceived threat of runaway inflation. Since 2011, [however,] we’ve seen economic growth improve and inflation rates across the globe subside. As a result, investment banks and market strategists are arguing against owning gold, and making the case that, with a lack of inflation and an improved economy, the need for owning gold as an insurance hedge against inflation and currency debasement is no longer present. I strongly disagree.

Longer term, I think gold goes to $5,000 over a number of years. If they continue to print money at the current rate, I think it could be multiples of that. I see a slow steady rise punctuated with some sharp upward moves.

Everyone and their mom is expecting long-term interest rates to rise now that the Fed is tapering its bond buying programs. I have a couple of problems with this line of thinking because, although it seems like reducing demand for a security (i.e. tapering QE) would result in a drop in price, when you really think about how quantitative easing works this makes no sense and, secondly, the market is telling us this makes no sense. Let me explain.

History clearly shows there is a direct link between inflation and gold demand. When inflation jumps, or even when inflation expectations rise, investors turn to gold in greater numbers. When gold demand rises, so does its price and you can guess what happens to gold stocks. Below is a look at the extent of consumer purchases after inflation (and in some cases hyperinflation) took off in a number of countries.

News out of Venezuela continues to be quite grim, pointing to further economic deterioration... Here is the the latest:

TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) are telling us that inflation is expected to be low for as far as the eye can see, and the economy is expected to be weak for some time to come. This article provides an understanding of what TIPS are, how they work and what they are currently saying.

Don't believe these big lies - the following charts illustrate just what IS reality. Take a look and then get prepared for when the ---- hits the fan!