Inflation/Deflation

Japan’s post-1989 experience provides a long-running case study on the limits of monetary and fiscal stimulus. After the collapse of a combined equity and property bubble, Japan relied on sustained deficits, near-zero interest rates, and repeated stimulus to stabilize growth. While markets eventually recovered in nominal terms, the process took decades and coincided with a sharp rise in government debt. In 2026, rising bond yields and higher debt servicing costs are testing the durability of this approach. The Japanese experience offers a relevant framework for assessing similar policy paths now being followed globally.

The historical relationship between the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock market has shifted from a weak positive correlation to a stronger inverse pattern. While global capital flows once linked a stronger dollar to rising U.S. equities, recent years show the opposite movement as risk-on and risk-off dynamics dominate. During risk-off periods, investors seek safety in the dollar, pushing it higher as equities fall. Conversely, a weaker dollar often aligns with a stronger global risk appetite. This article examines this correlation and the implications for investors.

Gary Tanashian of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) analyzed the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) throughout 2024–2025 as an indicator of risk sentiment and economic liquidity. A rising GSR suggested market caution, stronger dollar performance, and silver underperformance, while a falling ratio reflected potential reflation trends and risk-on behavior. Tanashian emphasized that investors should combine GSR analysis with additional indicators such as the HUI gold miner index, U.S. dollar trends, and Treasury yields. He also introduced the 30-year Treasury yield “Continuum” to interpret whether GSR shifts represent lasting market signals or temporary reactions.

Many U.S. pension funds remain underfunded, creating concerns about their ability to meet future obligations. Despite the trillion-dollar size of the U.S. retirement market, public pension plans face trillion-dollar funding gaps. Inflation and dollar devaluation continue to erode purchasing power, yet pension portfolios remain heavily weighted toward equities, bonds, and real estate. With commodities representing only a tiny percentage of total assets and gold and silver holdings minimal, the case for broader diversification and inflation protection remains relevant for both public and private pension managers seeking sustainable long-term returns.

Inflation represents a loss of discipline that always ends up hurting a large number of people. Furthermore, the consequences of inflation can leave wreckage in which policymakers are left with no good alternative policies to follow. Words: 961

The Gold/Silver Ratio has been rising along with the strength of the US dollar.

To wind up with true hyperinflation, some very bad things have to happen. The government has to completely lose control and the populace has to completely lose faith in the system - or both at the same time. Will the U.S. go down that path? Let's review the situation.

When interest rates go down, that spurs economic activity, and that is good for stock prices, so when interest rates start going up rapidly, that is not a good thing for the stock market at all.

The Fed’s current raising of interest rates could trigger a credit collapse, ushering in deflation and a New Great Depression.

Exactly what is inflation, and how do we measure it? It is very important to investors, savers, and people in general, that we understand.