Economic Overviews

The credit risk of the 30 large global financial entities representing the most systemically worrisome firms in the world just broke an important channel. It is now at its highest level in over four months having increased 14% in just the last three weeks which is extremely fast. At current levels we are now almost twice as risky as we were prior to the financial crisis and there is increasing concern that there might be another round of insolvencies or collapse of the financial industry. [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 630

Economy watchers looking for a spark of life in the exhausted, debt-ridden American consumer are quick to latch on to any signs of a pulse and the latest came in the form of higher personal borrowing in March. The $6.02-billion (U.S.) increase marked the sixth consecutive monthly advance and was nearly three times higher than the most bearish forecasts. The best news of all, however, is that credit-card debt climbed, marking only the second such rise since the housing and credit market collapse. [Unfortunately, however,] “We’re only 20 per cent of the way there" says Stephen Roach. "The American consumer is toast - stuck with a legacy of excessive debt, inadequate saving, and facing high unemployment, higher under-employment, weak incomes and holding on to assets that are under water... [As such,] you can not rule out the chances of the world sliding back into recession.” Words: 1004

Our government has grown too big, promised too much and waited too long to restructure. Our fiscal clock is ticking and time is not working in our favor. The Moment of Truth is rapidly approaching. We'll soon know whether Washington policymakers are up to the challenge and whether they will start focusing more of doing their job rather than just keeping their job and on focusing first on their country rather than their party. [To accomplished what is needed] the President and Congressional leaders from both political parties need to be at the table and everything must be on the table in order to achieve sustainable success. [Here's an outline of our country's predicament and how it might be resolved.] Words: 3110

While the [financial] events of the past few months have not been a surprise [to many I can just imagine how shocking they must be,] however, for those just waking up to the ongoing implosion of our fiscal infrastructure, the bubbling inflationary meltdown just over the horizon, the nightmare unfolding around our national debt... With gasoline nearing $5 a gallon, grain prices doubling, and shelf prices beginning to skyrocket, it’s hard for even the most ignorant suburban schlep to remain oblivious to the problem anymore. We are no longer on the edge of the abyss; we have fallen into it head first… [Let me explain.] Words: 2311

I wrote a piece recently called "Could America be Pushed over the Economic Edge?" about how Libya, Japan or even covert economic warfare from America’s enemies could push the U.S. into another financial meltdown. I received a one sentence email from my friend Jim Sinclair that said, “We are way over the edge right now.” His message gave me a sinking feeling. [Let me explain.] Words: 923

The current economic rebound [in the U.S.] is not a healthy and sustainable one. It is the result of the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus program ever [and, in spite of that,] neither housing nor employment are participating in the current rebound [while] budget deficits and transfer payments are at record highs! [As such, now is the time] to take action to protect your wealth from a potential economic setback and market decline. [Let me explain.] Words: 863

You thought 2010 was bad? Well, you haven't seen anything yet. 2010 was a Sunday picnic compared to what is coming. Get ready to get squeezed. Get ready for higher food prices, higher gas prices, higher health insurance premiums and higher taxes. Get ready to try to do a lot more with a lot less. Average Americans are going to be squeezed until they have nothing left to give - then they are going to be squeezed just a little bit more. Are you ready? Words: 1110

The future will be determined by how global supply and global demand are brought back into balance. If, [on one hand,] the means are found to expand aggregate demand sufficiently and sustainably, then the global excess supply will be absorbed and the global economy will begin to grow again. If, on the other hand, equilibrium is restored by a collapse in supply – back to a point at which there is real demand, a point determined by the current income and purchasing power of the individuals who comprise the world’s population – then globalization will collapse and the world economy will plunge into depression. Should that occur, millions of people around the world could starve before the decade is out. The geopolitical repercussions of such a scenario would be beyond dire. Words: 1313

From a historical standpoint, the dividend yield of 2% on the S&P 500 is too low. It smacks of a stock market top and underscores the point that the market is too optimistic in the sense that investors are willing to forgo yield because they assume that they will get the return via the capital gain. The last time S&P yields were around this level was in the summer of 2000, and we know what happened shortly after that! Words: 888

Bernanke has massively increased the monetary response in an attempt to halt the secular bear, and we know how the last attempt to control the market turned out - we got the second worst recession since the Great Depression and the second worst bear market in history. I fully expect the next leg down in the secular bear to be even worse that the last one - not only in the stock market, but also in the economy. Words: 525