Economic Overviews

Despite a long list of major risks to the global economy, the trend for the stock market is still UP until proven otherwise. At this stage it is absolutely critical to be cautious and watch for signs of a market correction or peak, but it is our view that a recession won't take hold until the following 6 key indicators are triggered.

We look at this market and we see "too much." Too much divergence, too much complacency, too much embedded downside risk…the list goes on and covers many things. Let's make the rounds and see what we find [and what it means for the immediate well-being of the various stock markets.]

When Jaime Caruana speaks, people should listen and the fact that he recently warned that the global financial system is currently "more fragile" in many ways than it was just prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers should set off all sorts of alarm bells. Who is Jaime Caruana? Why should we pay attention to what he has to say? What more does he have to say? Why should we be concerned? Read on!

Drug addiction ravages the health of the body and mind, but it can also be ruinous to the wallet of an addict. In addition, substance abuse wreaks havoc on U.S. businesses, affecting workers’ health and productivity (2 in 3 addicts are employed and 1 in 12 users are full-time workers). This article looks at the financial costs of a typical drug habit, the cost of rehab, the cost to the economy at large and the cost to the average American in allotted taxes - ouch!

With QE now winding down, the economy facing reduced headwinds, and risk aversion beginning to decline, risk taking is beginning to increase and that is an essential ingredient for healthier economic growth.

4 economic conditions need to be in place for interest rates to rise ahead of – and independent of – the Fed’s forward guidance. The economy met only one of those conditions to date but will likely meet all four by the end of the year...What follows is a status report on the four conditions.

If the U.S. economy weakens in the second half as a result of higher energy prices, that could cause interest rates and the dollar to fall — fueling a rally in metals.

With the Middle East now lurching towards yet another major war, it’s easy to envision a supply disruption that sends oil back to its previous high or beyond. So the question becomes, what would that do to today’s hyper-leveraged global economy? Bad things, obviously. Here are just 4 things that would likely happen.

I believe that the economy is headed toward a deep recession and that the stock market is extraordinarily overvalued based on unrealistically high expectations for economic output and corporate income...

Before this great financial crisis ever comes to a close, you'll see the Federal Reserve copy Europe and also implement negative deposit rates to try and get commercial banks to lend money into the economy. I have absolutely no doubt about it - and it will have three chief consequences for the markets. Let me explain.