Friday , 1 December 2023

Bull Markets Always End With a Bang, Not a Whimper, So Gold’s Run Should Have More Legs (+2K Views)

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Iacono goes on to say, in part:

If the late-2011 peak of just over $1,920 a [troy] ounce [for gold] proves to… [have been] the highest the price of [that] the yellow metal will go for another 30 years or so, it certainly looks nothing like the prior secular peak. Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter as shown below.

A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…

Holders of [gold, gold ETFs and gold stocks] should probably hang…[in there as]:

  1. Real interest rates remain in negative territory,
  2. Central banks continue to buy the metal in large quantities, and
  3. Investors around the world continue to lose confidence in both paper money and the policymakers that control it.

There [may well] have…been 12- or 13-year bull markets before that have ended like the blue curve in the graphic above, but I don’t know of any. That’s all the more reason to think that gold is still just getting warmed up for its main performance to come sometime in the next few years.

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