A recent research paper* by the Bank for International Settlements, entitled "The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications" paints a terrifying prospect for the inhabitants of most of the developed world with deficits spiralling out of control for every western industrialized country under study and inflation a foregone conclusion as a result. Words: 1128

We've been enjoying historically low interest rates for the last decade ... even more so in the last two years and we know the party is going to end at some point. Well, I'm beginning to suspect the end will come sooner rather than later but you don't have to just sit still and accept it. There are exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that, if used properly, can protect your principal and enable you to profit from rising rates. Words: 871

The market is currently slightly over-valued now which is reasonable since stocks offer a much more attractive return than bonds due to low interest rates. Eventually, however, interest rates will get to levels of at least 4% (which is the minimum normal rate on interest rates) and that would justify a P/E closer to 15. I am no prophet but if I had to guess, I would think future returns will be somewhere between Bogle's and Shiller’s estimates, i.e. between 8% and 10%.

Over the next few years, a wave of commercial real estate loan failures could threaten America’s already-weakened financial system. Commercial loan losses could jeopardize the stability of many banks, particularly the nation’s 2,988 mid-sized banks that have these dangerous concentrations in commercial real estate lending and, as such, as the damage spreads beyond individual banks, contribute to prolonged weakness throughout the economy. In fact, between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms - and nearly half are “underwater” already. Words: 987

With all the attention being focused on whether or not there will be a sustainable recovery in 2010, the potential for a wave of sovereign-debt crises following the wake of the global recession has just recently started to appear on people's radar screens - and such a wave should not be surprising. Words: 2541

Being afflicted with an Austrian outlook can turn many a would-be investor into a permabear. Indeed, if I were truly a hardcore advocate of Austrian investing, my only assets would be a shotgun and a bag of gold because, up until now, I have never come across any writing that attempted to weld Austrian thought onto an investment framework. Words: 953

No one ever likes to lose money and one of the best ways to do so is to set, in advance, at what point you are going to sell your security. You can either do it by simply setting a $ price point or a % decline point at which to sell. Such an approach is fraught with emotion and procrastination. There is a more objective way to accomplish the same objective. Words: 636

"Complicit" is a rousing, fun look back at the credit crisis filtered through the mind of someone who labored in the center of it. Ending the story much the same way the boom ended for so many a greedy, blinkered little pig — by giving you the middle finger abruptly and without a hint of premonition — only highlights the talent that makes "Complicit" such an enjoyable read. It is a tour of almost-impossible-to-believe tales of greed, stupidity, and woe across eleven short, engaging chapters. Words: 1446

There is a definite connection between fiat currencies and trade deficits. Critics of the Federal Reserve are right to blame it for distorting trade flows and setting the U.S. economy up for an inflationary crash. However, a trade deficit per se is not a sign of a bad economy. Indeed the trade deficit might blossom if the U.S. ever returned to the gold standard, though it would be due to a productive net inflow of producer goods. Words: 1667

Robert Precther recently published a list of market myths for his subscribers which I'm sure he won't mind if I review the lessons he voices in his article with you, borrowing from his excellent research to help make the arguments. Recognizing these market myths are critical to your success as an investor. Words: 1266