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Fundamentals are relative, charts are absolute. They accurately reflect all that is
going on, regardless of reasoning/motivation and…right now, the charts are letting us know that higher PM prices are unlikely to occur anytime soon. Barring some kind of “overnight surprise” that will shock the markets, odds favor lower prices over higher prices unless and until demand shows up in chart activity.
The above are edited excerpts from an article* written by Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) entitled Gold And Silver – When Fundamentals Fail And Charts Prevail.
[The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.] .
Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
The true story of gold and silver is a simple one. There is a recognized and acknowledged shortage of supply – in opposition to the greatest demand for both precious metals in recent memory, if not all time. Current prices are in total disregard to the fixed law of Supply v Demand, or perhaps more accurately stated, in total defiance of that law [for] it is the most reliable of truths that when demand is in far excess of supply, price goes higher.
Gold
Whenever a trend is down, [however,] the onus is on buyers to create a change and, right now, that is not happening [for gold]. Bearish spacing in the charts as we are seeing now is a sure sign of weakness and one of sellers being in control. [For a look at Noonan’s latest daily and weekly charts on gold which clearly show that] it will take more time and effort to make a turn in trend [please read his original article* as hyperlinked below].
Silver
Silver is not faring any better. Regardless of whatever positive fundamental consideration
one can advance, the chart structure is telling us silver is struggling. We see evidence of
that from the bearish spacing, supportive of overall weakness. [Again, to see the aforementioned words illustrated in chart form please read his original article* as hyperlinked below.]
Conclusion
The June lows have the potential of being the bottoms for gold and silver but we need more confirmation than we are currently seeing. Things are we are developing slowly so, even under this scenario, it will take much more time for buyers to turn this market around. Should price go lower still, then the time frame for a turnaround will be extended even more.
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
Other Noonan Articles:
1. Noonan: When Will Silver Rise to Higher Values? Here’s the Answer
It takes time to turn a market around, and silver is in that process. There is no degree of certainty that a bottom has been reached, but there exist at least a probability the recent lows may hold. Whether the lows hold or not, one cannot lose sight of why accumulating silver has been so important. When price finally accelerates higher, the trying of one’s patience will quickly be forgotten and all will be well. Read More »
2. Noonan: Charts are Infallible! Here’s Why & What They’re Saying About Gold & Silver
Some of the finest and most highly regarded minds in the world of PMs have been saying gold and silver are going higher…[but] the charts have “said” otherwise, and that has been the correct read…The fundamentals may be as bullish as can be [but] the charts are sending a different message. Read More »
3. Noonan: Gold & Silver Could Move Sideways for Another 1-2 Years – Here’s Why
Using past history of how price responds, it is likely that gold, and silver, could move sideways for another year or two. While this flies in the face of so many current, supposedly “expert”, opinions [mine is not based on opinion but, rather, is strictly based on the facts as conveyed by the charts. Take a look and you will see that too!] Read More »
4. Noonan: These Charts Clearly Show What’s Happening With Gold & Silver – Take a Look
Below is a perfect example of how the charts timed the movement in the price of gold and silver over the past week. Yes, you CAN time the market as this article clearly demonstrates! When the market “talks,” we listen.] Read More »
The window of opportunity to buy physical gold and silver continues to narrow. Like the housing market top was known to be coming, when it came, those who waited too long regretted it. When the bottom for the physical PMs is known as a certainty, those who waited for a “better price” may also regret that decision. It is all about choice. Read More »
In an election, it does not matter if voter turnout is high or low, the outcome is determined by the actual votes cast. The same holds true for the markets. Only those who make an actual buy or sell decision determine the outcome of the market trend. The market “voters” turn up in charts, recorded in the price range, close, and volume. Collectively, a “story” unfolds, and it usually is an accurate one as it does not include any opinions. Opinions do not matter. Articles written about fundamentals, pundit declarations, etc., all fall under the category of opinions. The market is the best source for information, and that is a fact. Read More »
…Fiats have an unbroken track record of failing throughout all of history. Gold also has an unbroken track record of being a store of value for over 5,000 years. Yes, there have been hiccups along the way, and we are in one now. It is what it is, but what it is is also an incredible buying opportunity at “fire sale” prices….[That being said,] a look at the charts of the paper-tracked PM market [beg the question] … “Where’s the beef?” Where is the substance of anything? We see none in the charts. Take a look. Words: 610; Charts :4 Read More »
Technical analysis is a measure different from fundamental analysis…and we qualifying our approach with a specialized subset of technical analysis. How so? We read price and volume behavior, over time, in the form of developing market activity. It is what one sees on a chart, price ranges, close locations, volume, time factor[s], but no more. Below are charts that suggest that the weakness in silver may be coming to an end, sooner now rather than later, but that for now, it is what it is – and what is, is reality. Read More »
You will read more and more articles touting how gold and silver have bottomed. They have not, at least according to price behavior as determined by actual buyers and sellers in the market. Read More »
Charts speak the loudest…and they never lie…[because they are] the true record of all buy and sell decisions executed, coming from the most informed to the least informed. Most of the problems lie with those who form an opinion, and how they choose to impose it onto what any given chart “says.” My understanding of what the quarterly monthly, weekly and daily charts are conveying about the price action of silver is, simply,] “Silver stackers, these lower prices are a gift you should keep on taking. Stay tuned.” Read More »
11. Noonan: Charts Suggest NO Ending Price Action In Either Gold or Silver – Take a Look!
Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have been calling for considerably higher prices. Over the past several months none called for sub-$1,300 gold and sub-$20 silver. Crystal balls do not work and never have. When it comes to markets, anything can happen [but the charts convey that] there is no apparent ending action suggesting a selling climax or even a cause for a reaction rally. Take a look. Read More »
RE: Fundamentals are relative, charts are absolute.
Charts are only good for knowing what happened in the past and that does not offer a good glimpse into the future especially when so many Central Banks are allowing PM’s to be traded using naked shorts!
+ Posted a while ago here:
https://www.munknee.com/gold-drop-1150-mid-2014-heres/
PM’s and especially Gold and Silver are doing what they are going to do, and although that sounds simplistic, the Major Central Banks now have their hands in the PM cookie jar and that will make using charts to predict the future value of PM’s just a guessing game.
Sooner (in less than 6 months), if not later, something will happen and I expect to see PM zoom upward and when it does many if not most small investors will get left behind as the BIG players use their fast computer access to grab everything they can…
Until then, many are happy to just hold a percentage of their assets in PM’s while others are using this period to add to their PM holdings, just like the Big Central Banks… Hint Hint…