munKNEE.com Your Key to Making Money
The euphoria phase of the bull market that I warned about months ago is now
beginning its final parabolic phase. I’m guessing we still have another 1 to 1.5 months before this runaway move finally ends.
So writes Toby Connor (www.goldscents.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Stock Market Euphoria Phase Turns Into Parabolic Phase That Always Crash.
(NOTE: This post is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the free Intelligence Report newsletter (see sample here – register here). The article may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.)
Connor goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
Depending on how far above the 200 day moving average it ends up stretching, I think there’s a pretty good chance we will see the entire intermediate rally wiped out in a matter of days or even hours when this house of cards finally comes tumbling down. That is how these runaway moves terminate. They crash! Parabolas always crash.
[Runaway moves]… can go on and on for months and months with savvy investors becoming more and more nervous the longer the move persists. The longer the trend continues the more professional traders all position right next to the exit, until finally one day everybody tries to get out the door at the same time. It’s that mass exodus to lock in profits that triggers the crash. The magnitude is determined by how far and how long the market stretches above the 200 day moving average.Markets are no different than a pendulum. They oscillate back-and-forth above and below the median line, which in this case is the 200 day moving average. Bernanke is not doing anyone any favors by stretching the market unnaturally far to the upside. All it is going to do is guarantee an exceptionally violent move to the downside once the forces of regression to the mean break the parabola.
Again, I would warn traders not to try and sell short as it’s virtually impossible to determine when the parabola is going to fail. My best guess is late June or early July based upon the normal timing band for the dollar index to form its next intermediate degree bottom. As I expect the crash to correspond with a dollar rally that would seem to be as good a guess as any.
For savvy traders the play isn’t to sell short, it’s to go long once the crash has occurred as the Fed will almost certainly double down on QE in the attempt to reflate asset prices.
…[While] the Fed may be able to levitate stocks back to marginal new highs, the real money is going to be made in commodities as all that excess liquidity will inevitably make its way into the undervalued commodity markets where the potential return is many multiples greater than in a very mature cyclical bull market in stocks that includes a weakening global economy.
(Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.)
*http://www.goldscents.blogspot.ca/2013/05/euphoria-phase-turned-into-parabolic.html (© 2013 Copyright Toby Connor – All Rights Reserved; GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. $10.00 one week trial subscription; if you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions, email Toby.)
Related Articles:
1. S&P 500′s PEG Ratio Suggests Overvaluation & Coming Correction
The S&P 500 index is trading at record high levels and optimism remains high with Barron’s professional money manager survey indicating a record 74% money managers being bullish on markets even at current levels. [When one] measures valuations with respect to expected growth, [however, the ensuing ratio, the PEG ratio,] suggests overvaluation at these levels. [Let me explain further.] Words: 254; Charts: 1 Read More »
2. It’s Time to Apply the “Greater Fool Theory” and Sell Your Winners to All Those Fools
The Dow has surpassed its all-time record high – set in October 2007 – and the S&P 500 is not far behind? Is this the early stage of another great bull market? Let’s look back at the two previous times when the S&P 500 set new all-time highs and see if we can learn something. Wait…first put your “this time it’s different” glasses on. OK, let’s go. Words: 430; Charts: 1
3. Don’t Ignore This Fact: “Greedometer Gauge” Signals S&P 500 Drop to the 500s by July-August, 2013!
The S&P500 is likely to achieve a secular (long term) peak this month, then drop to the 500s by July-August 2013. This article explains why. Words: 180
4. This Metric Strongly Suggests a Major Correction in the S&P 500 Could Be Coming
History shows that when investors experience a rapid decline in the amount of available cash in their brokerage account to spend/invest quickly such “negative net worth” leads to major corrections in the stock market. Currently such is the case so can we expect another such decline or will it be different this time?
5. Watch Out For Falling Stocks! Here’s Why
The stock markets make no sense. They have literally lost touch with reality. Divergences between fundamentals, confidence and the valuation of markets are large [and, as such,] cannot last for long….The only question is how…and how quickly….this correction occurs. Words: 261
6. You Need to Stay in the Stock Market Despite an Impending Economic Collapse – Here’s Why
You need to stay in markets despite an impending economic collapse. [Really?! Yes, really.] Normally such an expectation would be addressed by getting out of the way of the oncoming disaster and taking ones chips off the table [but,] in this situation, there is no place to hide. Low-risk assets, like bonds and near-cash, produce little to no return…and the threat of rising interest rates and inflation make them dangerous. Higher risk assets are unavoidable, given current conditions. [Let me explain further.] Words: 830
7. You Can Insure Your Portfolio From Potential Capital Loss – Here’s How
Most everything you’ve heard about investing from the mainstream media, your mutual fund advisor and your tax accountant is a lie. You’ve been told…that the entire point of portfolio diversification is to mitigate downside risk yet when the market experiences the inevitable decline, every sector pushes significantly lower – and your “diversified” portfolio suffers as a result, [right? Well, there IS a better way.] Hear me out. Words: 895
8. The U.S. Stock Market Is Overvalued By More Than 50%! Here’s Why
Key stock indices are becoming significantly overpriced. The value of the U.S. stock market stands at about 133% of GDP. The average for the past 60 years has been around 82%. By this measure, the U.S. stock market is overvalued by more than 50%! Words: 398
9. Stop! Don’t Forget Market Risk – Remember What Happened in 2000 & 2007/8.
Investors are more bullish now than at any time since 2002 but the current rally has not been fueled by improved prospects of actual growth and wealth creation. Instead, it’s mostly due to:
- investors desperate for income denied them elsewhere by central bank policies;
- printed stimulus cash seeking a home and
- sheer technical momentum
but nowhere do they seem to be considering market risk – the risk that your investment will lose value because it gets dragged down in a falling market. Words: 615
10. Insider Trading Suggests That a Market Crash Is Coming
What you are about to read below is startling. •Every time that the market has fallen in recent years, insiders have been able to get out ahead of time… •[What] is so alarming [this time round is] that corporate insiders are selling nine times as many shares as they are buying right now. •In addition, some extraordinarily large bets have just been made that will only pay off if the financial markets in the U.S. crash by the end of April. •So what does all of this mean? [Could it be that they] have insider knowledge that a market crash is coming? Evaluate the evidence below and decide for yourself. Words: 570
11. Ignore Wall Street Cheerleaders: Market Technicals, Fundamentals & Other Info Says Otherwise!
[In spite of what] the typical Wall Street cheerleaders, I mean strategists, are predicting, we see the equity market ever more closer to its cyclical top, miners about to retest a major bottom and hard assets with a new catalyst. [This article analyzes 9 pieces of information, complete with charts, that show what is actually going on in the marketplace at this point in time and what the short-term future holds.] Words: 930; Charts: 812. 5 Sound Reasons Investors Would Be Better Off On the Sidelines Than In the Market
New year festivities have continued on the stock market even as the Christmas trees have been put away. The “death of the fiscal cliff,” not horrible job numbers and supportive comments from Mario Draghi on the other side of the pond have led to bold and bullish behaviors over the last three weeks. While no one can predict the exact peak, here are five reasons you’re better off on the sidelines than in the market.
13. These Charts Suggest a Possible +/-60% Decline in the S&P 500 by 2014
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has developed a chart showing the past two cycles in the S&P 500 highlighting peak and trough valuations. At face value it is very alarming as it suggests a potential decline of somewhere in the vicinity of 60% over the next year or two and concurs with previous innovative trend analyses included in this article. Charts: 4
14. Current Market Overvaluation (from 33% – 51%!) Suggests Cautious Long-term Outlook
Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, [my analyses indicate that] the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 33% to 51%, depending on which of 4 indicators I used. This is an increase over the previous month’s 31% to 48% range. [Let me explain the details.] Words: 475
15. Goldman Sachs’ Leading Indicators Signal Steep Market Crash Ahead
Goldman Sachs reports their Global Economic Indicators (GLI) show the world has re-entered a contraction and…is predicting a market crash worse than that of the early 90′s recession and one slightly less than the sell-off at the turn of the millennium. [Below are graphs to support their contentions.] Words: 250
16. Will a Black Swan Event Cause the S&P 500 to Drop by 40%?
Mark Spitznagel…warned the other day that the S&P 500 could lose 40% of its value in the next couple of years. So what black swan event could cause the S&P 500 to drop down to 760? [Let’s take a closer look.] Words: 856