Monday , 17 June 2024

10 Reasons We are NOT Undergoing a Cyclical Recovery

This is NOT a business cycle: this is a one-time reversal of twenty years of inflation of the household balance sheet. An aging population needs a 10% savings rate (at least) to meet minimum funding requirements for the biggest retirement wave in US history but, instead, with 17% effective unemployment, many Americans are dis-saving. Words: 332

In further edited excerpts from the original article ( David Goldman goes on to say:

10. There is no recovery at all in Europe. European growth ground to a halt during the fourth quarter of 2009.

9. China won’t collapse, but government efforts to stop overheating by raising reserve requirements make clear that the world’s second-largest economy can’t be the locomotive for world growth.

8. Greece and its prospective rescuers in the European Community are at loggerheads over conditions for EC help.

7. State fiscal crises continue to worsen. Doomsday is here for the state of Illinois, California’s last set of cosmetic measures do little to address a $20 billion deficit, Baltimore has no idea how to close a $120 billion deficit. On top of this year’s $200 billion deficit, states face a trillion-dollar shortfall in pension funds.

6. Commercial real estate is nowhere near bottom, with some sectors (e.g. hotels) at delinquency rates of nearly 10%.

5. Regional banks continue to drop like flies, with 702 banks holding assets of $403 billion on the danger list.

4. Bank credit continues to shrink. Total bank credit is still falling at a 5% annual rate, an unprecedented decline.

3. What bank credit is available is funding the US Treasury deficit in the mother of all crowdings-out, replacing commercial loans on banks’ balance sheets.

2. Industrial production has bounced of the bottom, but manufacturing is only 15% of US employment.

1. Employment won’t come back.

Today’s consumer confidence number is one more nail in the coffin of exaggerated hopes for a cyclical recovery.

Editor’s Note:
– The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.
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